472 
FXUS63 KLBF 020849 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
249 AM CST TUE MAR 2 2004

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP LATE TODAY AND WILL START
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS REGION. SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CA WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN BAHA. ALL MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 60HRS. GFS THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ETA/CAN WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND THERE FORE MOVES
IT FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE QUITE
SIMILAR AND THE GFS DOES COME BACK TO THE ETA BY 78HRS. WITH GREAT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CAN AND ETA AND THE FACT THAT THE ETA HAS
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE ETA WILL WEIGH MORE
HEAVILY ON THE FORECAST. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH AND ASSOCIATED LOW DEVELOPING IN SW TX LATE
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY BEST LIFT STAYS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND DYNAMICS WILL BE REAL WEAK WHICH IS WHY THE ETA IS KEEPING
WEDNESDAY DRY OVER THE CWA. WITH THIS I WILL SCALE BACK POPS IN THE
WEST AND LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. BY LATE THURSDAY SFC...H7...AND H5 LOW BECOME STACKED OVER
WESTERN OK. THIS KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION ALONG
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SOME WRAPAROUND MAY INFILTRATE THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA LATE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WHAT PREVIOUS FORECAST DID AND TREND
DOWN PRECIP EVEN MORE.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE
EXITING STORM...WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
DEFINITELY BE LACKING AND WITH THIS WILL KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING DRY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE CWA BEHIND FRIDAYS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
RIGHT ON THE NOSE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND WITH THAT WILL MAKE VERY
FEW CHANGES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS SUNDAYS STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER
MN WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OFF WESTERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGE AXIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH CNTRL AK.
WV SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO MI AND SOUTHERN CANADA. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN BEHIND IT OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CAB