403 
FXUS62 KILM 011953
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 PM EST MON MAR 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE UPPER 
RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT OVERHEAD.  TODAY IS THE FIRST IN A 
SERIES OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS...AND NIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT NOW 
THAT RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP.    

OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE JUNE THAN MARCH.  RELATIVELY 
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO FORCE IMPULSES 
LIFTING OUT OF A MEAN WEST COAST TROF TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE 
CAROLINAS.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT... 
BUT HANG UP OVER THE AREA AND FINALLY LIFT NORTH AGAIN WED NIGHT.  
WITH DUE WESTERLY FLOW FROM H8 ON UP AND DYNAMICS CHANNELED WELL 
NORTH...NOT GOING FOR ANY PRECIP BEFORE FRIDAY.  JUST ENOUGH 
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT A SCT-BKN SKY FORECAST SHOULD HOLD 
UP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.   

CLOUD COVER NOTWITHSTANDING...TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.  
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL GO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S 
AND MINS IN THE 50S THRU FRIDAY.  SEA BREEZES SHOULD CLIP 5-7 
DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.  

NEXT COLD FRONT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN FRI THRU SAT...AND 
FINALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT.  GFS AND OTHER MEDIUM 
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE 
DROPPED THU NIGHT POPS.  SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO BEHIND 
THIS FRONT SUN-MON.  

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES E OF THE WATERS WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE SLOWLY BRINGS FRONT INTO THE REGION...FINALLY 
OOZING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE N WED MORNING. THINKING THAT FRONT 
WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE NC WATERS...IF IT 
CROSSES THEM AT ALL. MAY SEE SCEC TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD 
FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FRI WITH POSSIBLE SCA FRI AFTN LASTING 
UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLD FRONT FINALLY PASSES. INCREASED SW FLOW 
SAT WITH TIGHT PRES GRAD DEVELOPING AS LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES WELL N 
OF THE AREA. LATE SAT INTO SUN W TO NW DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WILMINGTON     55  75  55  72 /  10  10  10  10
FLORENCE       54  77  55  74 /  10  10  10  10
LUMBERTON      54  76  54  73 /  10  10  10  10
MYRTLE BEACH   56  68  56  68 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

$$

RAS/TRL