118 FXUS64 KCRP 011006 AFDCRP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 406 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED AROUND A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO CUERO TO THREE RIVERS TO EAST OF LAREDO. WEAK 700MB VORT MAX TRAVERSING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST INTO INLAND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND THROUGHOUT MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO-ETA HAS BEST HANDLING ON CURRENT POSITION AND WILL FOLLOW IT FOR THE SHORT-TERM. LINE OF SHOWERS LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS LA SALLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN END THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH 700MB SHORTWAVE. BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND MOVE BACK NORTHEAST WASHING OUT. AREAS OF FOG...AND MAINLY LOW STATUS...POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND TONIGHT WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AT SFC AND LLVL JET INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. .MARINE...SCA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS CURRENTLY 7 TO 9 FEET. && .LONG-TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...GFS/CANADIAN/NOGAPS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRG THE PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO MOV ACRS TX THURSDAY...WITH THE NEXT ONE MOVG ACRS OK FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE INCREASING RTN FLOW/MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM...WITH SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE WATERS BY EARLY WED. CONVECTION ANTICIPATED TUE NGT-WED...WITH A GREATER CHANCE THURSDAY OWING TO UPPER DYNAMICS. ALTHOUGH THE FOREGOING MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN...THE CANADIAN DOES NOT PROG THE SFC BNDRY/TROUGH... CORRESPONDING TO THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM...TO MOVE AS FAST AS THE BNDRY PROGD BY THE GFS. CONCUR WITH THE SLOWER CANADIAN...THUS ANTICIPATE THAT THE SFC TROUGH WL NOT REACH CRP UNTIL AROUND 22Z THU. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NGT/FRIDAY BEHIND THIS TROUGH. AFTER THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVS EAST OF OK...CONCUR WITH THE GFS PROG THAT A SURGE OF HIGHER SFC PRESSURES/DRIER AIR WL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 74 61 75 65 / 30 10 20 20 VICTORIA 73 60 74 63 / 50 10 20 20 LAREDO 77 59 77 62 / 20 00 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA 270-275 && $$ 87...LONG-TERM 76...SHORT-TERM