332 
FXUS61 KCAR 171034
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
534 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2004

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TODAY. NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE: ( TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT )
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY TODAY. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM AROUND 15 NORTH TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH RIDGING
WILL STILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROF WHICH WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH TO AROUND 10
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING STILL EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S DOWNEAST.

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE. A NARROWING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ALOFT...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 NORTH TO 15
TO 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.

LONG RANGE: ( THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY )
HAVE BASED FORECAST ON COMPROMISE BETWEEN UKMET/GEM AND GFS. HAVE
RAISED CLOUD PERCENTAGES AND POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
OCEAN STORM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL LOWER NUMBERS
FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES BASED ON GFS MATCH
MOS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH UKMET/GEM BRING THE OCEAN STORM CLOSER
TO THE COASTAL WATERS THAN GFS...WILL BASE FORECAST ON COMPROMISE OF
THE THREE MODELS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KT LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO WNA WAVE WATCH III FOR SEAS
BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE INCREASED ALONG WITH WINDS IF THE SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

.CAR...NONE.

SHORT TERM: NORCROSS
LONG TERM/AVIATION/MARINE: MIGNONE