184 
FXUS65 KCYS 171004
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
304 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...A WARM AND WINDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA 
TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.  MAIN PROBLEM IS
AMOUNT OF WIND.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS 
TO DEVELOP OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TROF 
DEEPENS OVER FAR ERN WY.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT
BY RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S OVER 
THE PLAINS TODAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE LIKELY
SUFFICIENT.  OTHERWISE SHOULD BE PTCLDY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH 
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE RIDES OVER UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE MOVING 
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WY THRU TONIGHT.  WINDS CONTINUING RATHER STRONG 
MAINLY OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA TONIGHT BUT WITH ONLY WEAK 
SINKING MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HILITE THOUGH SOME 
LOCALIZED GUSTS MAY FLIRT WITH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE REMAINS OVER CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY 
ON TAP.  APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SPREAD EAST AS SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES IN EASTERN 
COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING. ETA A LITTLE QUICKER DRAWING COLD AIR 
INTO THE PLAINS AND THIS MAY AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT EXPECT 
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEFORE 
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW BY THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ALSO 
SIMILAR WITH THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE 
COLORADO BORDER. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH LATER 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS FRIDAY MORNING AND SNOW 
SHOULD END MOST AREAS. TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL HOWEVER. LATEST 
MODEL RUNS SHOW NEXT TROF TO BE WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND LESS 
ORGANIZED. WILL LEAVE SCATTERED POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY 
NIGHT...BUT LOWER POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS STILL LOOKS 
OVERDONE WITH QPF MONDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT 
SYSTEM IN DOUBT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND FIRST 
PART OF THE WEEK.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

RE/STARK