139 FXUS63 KILX 081030 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 415 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2004 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY RACING EAST TOWARD THE NC CAPES BY SUNSET WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BRINGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH IL MON MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MORE TO THE NORTH...SO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL TONIGHT INTO MON. TEMPS DO MODIFY BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS...AND TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 30S MON WITH SOME PACIFIC AIR ARRIVING WITH WSW BREEZES AND SOME SUNSHINE. IL BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED IN A WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE WEEK WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. MOISTURE AGAIN LIMITED AND JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WHILE TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SE FROM CANADA TOWARD IL WED NIGHT AND THU WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT...WHILE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS MORE NORTH OF CENTRAL IL. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FROM TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF IL EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE CLEAR OUT WEST ACROSS MO. TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL IL RANGE FROM 14 TO 21 AND HELD UP MORE FROM LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. QUINCY JUST CLEARED AND TEMP DROPPED TO 8. STILL SOME FLURRIES AT BLOOMINGTON AIRPORT AT 3 AM. 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MO TO RACE EAST TOWARD THE NC CAPES BY SUNSET AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH SHOULD HELP LIFT LOW CLOUDS OUT DURING THE MORNING. CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CO/WY/UT BORDER WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG CANADA. CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES NE AND BECOMES ABSORB BY THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z/MON AND BRINGS A FRONT THRU IL MON MORNING. ETA AND NGM KEEPS CENTRAL IL DRY WITH LIGHT QPF PASSING NORTH TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL OVER KY MON AND MON NIGHT. GFS STILL HAS SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SYSTEM IS SO FAST MOVING THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE AND WILL TRENDS THINGS TOWARD THE DRIER SIDE. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO PROB30 CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT NORTH OF I-70 AND OVER EASTCENTRAL IL MON MORNING...BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN WEST MON AS FRONT GOES THRU. SIMILAR GUIDNACE THRU TONIGHT AND STAYED CLOSE TO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH TODAY. BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER DO NOT LET TEMPS COOL MUCH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MON AND LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW COVER BUT RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER SE IL FROM I-70 SOUTH AND AROUND 6 INCHES OVER PARTS OF NE CWA. NOTICED GUIDANCE AS WARM AS LOWER 40S AT LAWRENCEVILLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH OF I-70. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF COOLS 850 MB TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TUE AND WILL HAVE TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL DURING MID WEEK. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS OUT OF CANADA TOWARD IL WED NIGHT AND THU WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. GFS ODDLY HAS VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE MOST QPF ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES DURING MID WEEK. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ACCOMPANIED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT WHERE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THERE BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY THIS FAR SOUTH. NEW MEX WARMS TEMPS FRI AND SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH. AGAIN WITH SNOW PACK PROBABLY STILL AROUND...WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. && $$ HUETTL