134 
FXUS63 KLBF 301208 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
605 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2004

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
    THE MCCOOK (RWDN1) PROFILER INDICATES WIND 25040KT IN THE FIRST 
GATE AND THE KLBF SOUNDING SHOWS 27027KT AT ABOUT 800 FT AGL WITH 
SURFACE WIND 19004KT. SO I HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS IN THE KLBF TAF.
&&

$$
-SPRINGER   
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
310 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2004

...FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TEMPERATURES...

.DISCUSSION...
H5 WAVE MOVING INTO PAC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDING WEAK 
RIDGE INTO FORECAST AREA AS IT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER PAC NORTHWEST. 
ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO FINALLY DISLODGE ARCTIC 
AIR OVER NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB 0C LINE SHIFTS EAST ALONG A LINE 
FROM VTN TO LEX. THIS IS SIMILAR IN BOTH GFS AND ETA ALTHOUGH NOT 
QUITE AS FAR EAST AS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE SNOW COVER OVER THE EAST 
IS HARD TO OVERCOME. AGAIN THIS AM GFS OUT PERFORMING ETA ON PRECIP 
AREA ALBEIT VERY LIGHT. WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST TENDING TOWARDS 
GFS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP. AS SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND UPPER 
SUPPORT MOVES EAST BEST FORCING NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT WITH CHANCES 
DWINDLING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS WE GET ON BACKSIDE OF H5 
AND H7 TROUGH. AS SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEEPENS ON SATURDAY WITH H7 LOW 
CLOSING OFF FOCUS SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SLIGHT CHANCE 
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MAINLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN MAX TEMPS. POSSIBILITY OF SIMILAR SCENARIO TUES 
WED AS COLD ARCTIC HIGH SETS UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STATIONARY 
BOUNDARY SETTING UP AS IT HAS BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. NO POPS AT 
THIS TIME.  

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD RIDGE AT H5 OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH NICE WAVE OUT OVER THE 
GULF OF ALASKA...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. 
FORECAST AREA IS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. WATER VAPOR HAS MOISTURE 
STREAMING OVER TOP OF RIDGE ALONG JET STREAM PASSING JUST TO THE 
EAST OF FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVING EAST 
CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR. AT THE SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY 
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. NOT QUITE AS 
FAR WEST AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. 

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

POWER