695 
FXUS63 KLBF 140842
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
242 AM CST WED JAN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ETA/GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST 36 HOURS ACROSS CWA AND 
VCNTY SO WILL LEAN BASICALLY ON ETA WITH BETTER LOWER LAYER 
RESOLUTION FOR TRACKING COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER WHICH 
WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF MN INTO UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. TWO 
CHALLENGES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NE CWA. ONE BEING WINDS THIS 
MORNING AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS 
WITH WITH SFC-850 WINDS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH THE WINDS AT H85 
NEAR 50KTS. ALSO CAA ACROSS FAR NE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE 
LOWER LAYER WAA KICKS IN. CLOSEST BUFKIT SOUNDING IS ANW WHICH KEEPS 
THINGS WELL BELOW ANY HEADLINES AND OFK WHICH LOOK NEAR ADV SO PLAN 
ON JUST WINDY THIS AM ONL VCNTY WITH DECREASING WINDS DUE TO GRAD 
RELAXING BY MID AFTERNOON. 

RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS TROF IN E PAC MOVES ONTO TO THE 
WEST COAST...WITH THE ENERGY IN TROF SPLITTING...ONE MOVING INTO 
PAC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER BATCH DIVING TOWARD BAJA. BOTH 
ETA/GFS SHOW THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH DIFFERENT SMALLER DETAILS. ETA 
THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH NORTHERN WAVE SEEMS TO BE MORE 
CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND POSITION...DIVING IT SOUTH OUT OF IDAHO 
INTO 4 CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUN 
IS IN LESS AGREEMENT AND TAKES WAVE INTO NE PANHANDLE AND CLOSES IT 
OFF OVER SW NE...AND PRODUCES PCPN ACROSS WESTERN CWA FRI NITE. CAN 
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ETA WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN 
STREAM ENERGY SO WILL SIDE WITH THIS SOLUTION AND LEAVE THINGS DRY 
THROUGH FCST PERIOD ATTM. 

AS FOR TEMPS THUR CONTINUES TO LOOK THE WARMEST AS UPPER RIDGE 
PROGRESSES BY. FROPA THUR NITE WITH COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY BUT 
TEMPS STILL AOA AVERAGE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
U/A ANLAYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWING STRONG NEG TILTED LOW OVER SE 
CANADA WITH TROF ALONG EAST COAST...ANOTHER TROF OUT IN EASTERN PAC 
ASSOC WITH LOW OVER AK. IN BETWEEN IS AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 
SW CONUS INTO NW CANADA...LEAVING NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER CWA. CLIPPER 
SYSTEM MOVING NEAR ND/MN BORDERS SHOWING UP WELL IN SAT IMAGERY. SFC 
LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM IS OVER WESTERN ND...WITH SFC TROF 
EXTENDING ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA. ANY COLD AIR ASSOC WITH SYSTEM IS 
STILL ABOVE US BORDER WITH W/NW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP THIS 
EVENING...EXCEPT IN DECOUPLED VALLEYS. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

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