394 WWUS86 KPQR 011638 SABOR ORZ011-021700- ********************************************************** FOREST SERVICE NORTHWEST WEATHER AND AVALANCHE CENTER ISSUED THROUGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND, OR ********************************************************** SUMMARY BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE FORECAST FOR THE MT HOOD AREA AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES These forecasts apply to back country avalanche terrain below 7000 feet. They do not apply to highways or operating ski areas. ********************************************************** 0830 AM PST Thursday, January 01, 2004 ********************************************************** ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS..... MT HOOD AREA... Considerable avalanche danger above 5 to 6000 feet and moderate below slightly increasing Thursday, slightly decreasing later Thursday through Friday morning. Danger increasing again later Friday afternoon and night, becoming considerable above 4 to 5000 feet and moderate below. SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST.... Moderate avalanche danger below 7000 feet except locally considerable on west to southwest facing slopes above about 5000 feet early Thursday. Danger slightly increasing later Thursday morning and early afternoon, but slightly decreasing late Thursday through Friday morning becoming moderate below 7000 feet. Danger gradually increasing later Friday afternoon and night, becoming considerable above 4 to 5000 feet and moderate below. EAST SLOPES SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES.... Moderate avalanche danger below 7000 feet slightly increasing Thursday and becoming considerable above 5 to 6000 feet and moderate below. Danger slowly decreasing late Thursday through Friday morning becoming moderate below 7000 feet. Danger slowly increasing later Friday afternoon and night, especially on east exposures at higher elevations. SNOWPACK SYNOPSIS.... In most areas relatively small amounts of mainly low density snowfall have been received during the past several days along with relatively low freezing levels. While winds have been generally light and have shifted considerably since last weekend, some areas have reported intermittent wind transport and this has created some localized brittle and relatively unstable wind slabs of 1 to 2 feet-primarily on west and southwest exposures above about 5 to 6000 feet where a considerable danger remains. Although some excellent and relatively stable powder also exists on many slopes, a generally moderate danger exists overall with some shallow soft slabs possible on steeper lee terrain showing evidence of wind transport. THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY MORNING..... The weakening northern edge of a strong frontal system to the south should lift northward over the region Thursday morning, bringing increasing light snow or snow showers, especially to the east slopes of the southern Washington Cascades, and the Mt Hood area, with relatively light accumulations expected elsewhere. This weather should either help maintain or slightly increase the danger on Thursday, especially in the south. With decreasing light snow or snow showers following late Thursday, and light to occasionally moderate shower overnight and early Friday, a slightly decreasing danger is likely. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FRIDAY NIGHT..... Light to moderate snow should develop and spread southward Friday afternoon and evening, becoming moderate Friday night. Along with continued low and lowering freezing levels and some increase in winds, this should lead to a gradual increase in the danger later Friday into early Saturday. Some sensitive through relatively shallow slabs are probable on lee slopes by early Saturday, especially on northeast to southeast exposures. ********************************************************** Backcountry travelers should be aware that elevation and geographic distinctions are approximate and a transition zone between dangers exists. Remember there are avalanche safe areas in the mountains during all levels of avalanche danger. Contact local authorities in your area of interest for further information. NWAC Mountain Weather Forecasts and mountain weather data are also available by visiting our Web site at www.nwac.noaa.gov. Moore/Forest Service Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center