000 
FXUS63 KILX 012036
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1025 AM CST THU JAN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS VERY SIMILAR IN OUR CWA THROUGH 36 HRS. THEN THEY BEGIN TO 
DIVERGE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT GOES ON SAT 12Z. ETA CONTINUES TO 
BE FURTHEST SOUTH AND HAS TRENDED FURTHER THAN PREV RUN. THE GFS HAS 
TRENEDED FURTHERN SOUTH...BUT NOT MUCH. CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF 
ALL SIMILAR TO ETA. GFS LOOKS MOST CONSISTENT...AND HAS BEEN THE 
BEST SO FAT THIS SEASON. HOWEVER WILL NOT THROW OUT THE REST JUST 
YET...SO WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE WITH LOCATION OF FRONT FOR SAT 
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE RESULTING SYSTEM THAT 
MOVES NE ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH SRN IL SUNDAY AND THE PCPN TYPE. 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
CRNT WARM FRONT OVR SRN PARTS OF CWA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. 
SFC DEWPOINTS OF 45-55F WILL ALSO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD 
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOSITURE AIDED BY A 45KT LOW LEVEL 
JET MAX. ALL THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A 70KT MID LEVEL JET FROM THE 
WSW TO PRODUCE LIKELY RWS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ACRS SRN IL...TO 
INCLUDE SRN PORTIONS OF CWA. RWS ALREADY TO OUR WEST SO WILL UP POPS 
FOR TONIGHT IN SRN HALF OF CWA. MOST OF PCPN WILL BE BEFORE 
MIDNIGHT...SO WILL DROP EVERYTHING AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SERN 
IL...AND KEEP CHC POPS THERE. NEXT FRONT COMES IN FOR SATURDAY. 
APPEARS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN BEGINS TO DEVELOP PCPN AS GULF OPENS 
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN FROM NW 
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...AND WORK ITS WAY SOUTH TO REST OF CWA. 
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NW SAT NIGHT. CHANGE TO SNOW IN 
REMAINDER OF CWA DEPENDS ON SPEED AND COLD AIR. WILL BLEND SPEED OF 
GFS AND ETA...WHICH KEEPS CHANGE OVER LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS 
FCST. HOWEVER...PCPN APPEARS LIKELY AS MODELS CONT TO BE CONSISTENT 
WITH PCPN...TYPE IS ONLY QUESTION FOR NOW. SO WILL UP POPS FOR 
SUNDAY AND KEEP CHC FOR SAT NIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS 
SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SYSTEM PULLS OUT QUICK ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP CHC POPS 
OF S- FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACRS AREA. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WILL BE DRY 
AND COLD AS LARGE HIGH PRESS AREA FROM UP NORTH SLIDES INTO MIDWEST. 
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW...LATER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. 
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY. SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE 
CHC OF PCPN FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. BELIEVE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED 
SOUTH OF AREA...KEEPING US DRY. MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DONE 
THE SAME. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

&&
    
$$

AUTEN