000 
FXUS65 KMSO 222100
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
200 PM MST MON DEC 22 2003

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE AND UNDERLYING SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE SOME EVIDENCE OF UPCOMING CHANGE AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER AREA FROM WEST LATE TONIGHT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT
FOG/STRATUS TO BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN WESTERN MONTANA...BUT DENSE
FOG SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED.  HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATE WITH A
WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY
EXPECT SLIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AND LITTLE CHANCE OF MIXING
OUT THE COOLER AIR IN THE VALLEYS.  ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IS
RIGHT ON ITS HEELS...THOUGH...WITH WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING PRECIP FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS LINED UP OVER THE SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.
COULD BE CLOSE TO HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA...BUT TOO EARLY TO NEED
HIGHLIGHTS.  FRONT WILL MIX OUT VALLEYS...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR MIXED BAG OF PRECIP...INCLUDING LOCAL FREEZING RAIN...AHEAD OF
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WARM FRONT FAVORED SCENARIO FOR
WINDS ON THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND GRANGEVILLE AREA.  WINDS WILL
SHOW ONLY MODEST INCREASES WITH FIRST SYSTEM...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE
THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL HOLD ON TO EITHER LOW CHANCE
OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM/WHITMORE
LONG TERM/KOLATA