000 
FXUS61 KLWX 051037 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
410 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT):
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN AFFECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT 
EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE AN ADVISORY IS POSTED...AND LOWER 
CENTRAL MARYLAND WHERE NO HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE...

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID LEVEL LOW ROTATING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A 1015MB CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 
NEXT SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH A STATIONARY 
BOUNDARY EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WARM ADVECTION FROM A DAMPENED WAVE OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST CONUS IS RIDING UP THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. REGIONAL RAOBS 
AND ACARS DATA SHOWS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE AT 
0C...WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT NOTED NEAR RICHMOND. EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO WARM THE LOW LEVELS...AND PRESENT A SHORT PERIOD OF 
POCKETS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE 
METRO AREA...UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER 
TO RAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE WARM 
ADVECTION IN THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
HOURS...AS THE UPPER LOW (AND DEFORMATION ZONE) APPROACH WARMING LOW 
LEVELS. EXPECT COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND COOLING WITH SUNSET 
TO TURN PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW EAST OF MOUNTAINS. THE FAVORED 
DENDRICTIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER WILL FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER 
LEVELS...WHERE AN AREA OF FRONTOGENTIC FORCING/HIGHER OMEGA IS 
FORECAST...ENHANCING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

DECIDED TO PLAY AS ONE EVENT...AS PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE TWO 
SYSTEMS SHOULD FILL IN DURING THE DAY.

.MARINE: NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL CYCLONE WILL 
PRESENT SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS.

ROGOWSKI

.LONGER TERM...
SECONDARY PHASE OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE IN FULL 
SWING AT 12Z SATURDAY. H5 CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH THE 
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. STRONG OMEGA/UPPER 
DIVERGENCE FIELDS DEPICTED THROUGH 18Z. THUS EXPECT THE SNOW TO 
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM 
LIFTS NORTHEAST. ETA IS FASTER AT MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT...WILL GO 
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS BECAUSE CLOSED LOWS ARE SLOW 
MOVERS. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 
WILL KEEP WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IT WILL MAINLY BE A TEMP FORECAST 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GENERALLY WENT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 
MOS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES SUNDAY AS GROUND TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE COLDER. NO CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED 
TO BRING MORE PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF 
NEXT WEEK.  

CPW

$$

.LWX...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 400 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 400 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES        
     MDZ002>005.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 400 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES        
     MDZ006>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 400 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES        
     VAZ021...VAZ027>031...VAZ042.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 400 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES        
     VAZ025>026...VAZ036>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 400 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES        
     VAZ041...VAZ052>054.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM EST SATURDAY FOR           
     ZONES VAZ050>051...VAZ055>056.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 400 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ZONES        
     WVZ048>055.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

$$