000 
FXUS61 KCAR 262010
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
310 PM EST WED NOV 26 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MAINE ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WE ARE LEANING CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEM/UKMET SOLNS ATTM
WHICH ALL SUPPORT A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES NEAR TRIPLE PT. SOME
CONCERN IS FOR SNOWFALL UP N & W EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP GOES TO ALL
RAIN. ACCUMS COULD RUN 2-4 INCHES ACROSS FAR N & W ESP ST. JOHN VLY. WILL
ALSO ISSUE SPS GIVEN IT IS A HOLIDAY & PEOPLE WILL BE TRAVELING ESP FRIDAY.
AFTER COORD W/HYDRO-MAN...WILL ISSUE ESF FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL OF SMALLER
STREAMS AS THEY ARE RUNNING HIGH. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY & GIVEN SOIL NOW FOZEN
IN MANY PLACES...RAINFALL WILL BE LARGELY RUNOFF. LARGER STREAMS SHOULD BE
OK.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWING AC/CI SHIELD STREAMING ACROSS THE CWFA IN
RESPONSE TO S/WV IN SWLY FLOW ALF. LEANED W/CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT
AS HIGHP PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE CWFA.

THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHILLY W/HIGH PRES SMACK DAB OVER THE CWFA.
GRIDS SHOW 35-40 ACROSS THE N W/LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROF MOVES E &
SHARPENS. INTERESTING SETUP COMING LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT ESP ACROSS THE
N & W. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INC IN THE EVENING W/PRECIP ARRIVING NEAR
06Z AS LOW PRES MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO CANADA W/WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENG. TRIPLE PT FORMS NEAR SOUTHERN NYS. OVERRUNNING SETUP IN PLACE W/ESE
FLOW IN BLYR & SSE FLOW THRU H8. COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE INTIALLY.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE N &
W W/SOME ACCUMS EXPECTED. ATTM...WE ARE LOOKING FOR 2-4 ACROSS FAR N
W/AROUND AN INCH OR S IN CAR-PQI AREA. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AFT 06Z TIME
FRAME. S OF HUL-MLT AREA...PRECIP WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
W/RAIN OVER DOWNEAST AREAS.

MIN TEMPS ARE A REFLECTION OF ETA/MAV MATCHMOS. MAX TEMPS REFLECT
CLOSER TO THE MAV.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANY SNOW AND SLEET OVER FAR
NORTHERN MAINE WILL TURN TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A WHILE FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
CONSOLIDATES NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DRY SLOT WILL PULL INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STORM LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING THE DRY SLOT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. LOTS OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
IF THIS ENERGY IS ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A STRONG SECONDARY
SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. AVN IS CONSOLIDATES THE SYSTEM MORE THAN THE ETA.

FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM...A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND A WEAK ZONAL
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE EAST. SHALLOW CLIPPERS COME THROUGH MONDAY...
TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE LITTLE MORE THAN SNOW
SHOWERS OR LIGHT DUSTINGS OF SNOW FROM THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY AS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS WEST OF THE WATERS. GALE LIKELY
SATURDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND STORM.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW...EXCEPT MVFR IN MIST
EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.CAR...NONE.

SHORT TERM: HEWITT
LONG TERM: BLOOMER