000 
FXUS66 KLOX 260522
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2003

.SHORT TERM...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THIS EVENING. GRADIENTS AND RESULTANT WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS
EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA SOUTH COAST...WITH SBA-SMX REACHING -3.8 MB
LAST HOUR...AND MONTECITO GUSTING TO 38 MPH AT 410Z (A PERFECT
CORRELATION FOR THE SUNDOWNER GRADIENT TO WIND GUST RULE OF THUMB 
THAT 1 MB EQUALS 10 MPH). 00Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LAYER AROUND
3000 FEET...AND AN EDDY SPUN UP BY STRONG NW FLOW AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION IS SPINNING THE RESULTING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NW INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AT THIS TIME. BELIEVE THAT OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENT TRENDS
AND INCREASING GENERAL NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT DID UPDATE THE ZONES/GRIDS TO ADD PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO MOST L.A. COUNTY ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS THIS EVENING
HAVE PLUNGED QUICKLY UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
NEGATIVE 24 HOUR TRENDS...BUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
COOLING...AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR IN SOME CASES 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE MON NIGHTS READINGS.

WED THROUGH FRI...NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ON WED SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE BY
THU MORNING...AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRI. THIS COMBINED WITH
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE WARMUP ESPECIALLY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES ACROSS
THE USUALLY FAVORED AREAS...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT THAT DEVELOPS. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE QUITE
HEALTHY...WITH THE 00Z MESO-ETA PREDICTED LAX-DAG AT -6 MB THU AND
FRI. ONCE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS WIPED OUT BY THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ON WED...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN BY RECENT MODEL RUNS AS A CLOSED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE...THUS FRI SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD
WITH NOTHING WORSE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR SAT THRU TUE...THE 12Z GFS WAS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS IN FORMING A CUT OFF LOW WELL
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAVE US HIGH AND DRY WITH JUST
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE UKMET IS STILL SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION BRINGING THE UPPER LOW RIGHT OVERHEAD SAT. WILL GO WITH THE
MAJORITY SOLUTION FOR NOW AND KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM THROUGH MONDAY.
THE GFS FINALLY SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING INLAND
TUESDAY BUT ID RATHER NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP THAT FAR OUT,
ESPECIALLY WHEN WERE TALKING ABOUT CUT OFF LOWS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

$$

JACOBSON/WOFFORD