000 
FXUS64 KCRP 180923
AFDCRP

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE STRONG SRN STREAM S/WV 
IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TX RIGHT NOW AND WL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE 
AREA LATER THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP RATHER QUICKLY 
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THIS CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED TO 
PUSH EAST RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.  KCRP 88D WAS SHOWING THE LAST LINE OF 
THE CONVECTION ALONG A BEEVILLE TO BENAVIDES LINE.  GIVEN THE 
CURRENT TRENDS...WL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES 
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.  WL MAINTAIN CONVECTION SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR 
THE WATERS.  THE NEXT ISSUE WL BE WINDS.  A STRONG NRN STREAM S/WV 
MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO WL CONTINUE DIVING SEWD TDA AND BRING 
ANOTHER FNT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN.  STRONG NVA AND SUBSIDENCE 
ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL YIELD WIDESPREAD 
WINDY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTN/EVE.  WL ISSUE A WINDY ADVY FOR ALL 
ZONES TDA.  HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE 
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO TNT DUE TO THE DEVELOPING STRONG 
PGF AND CAA.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO STAY UP TNT AND WL KEEP LOWS FROM 
GETTING AS COLD AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.  MILD TEMPS ARE 
EXPECTED TDA WITH WED BEING AROUND 6 DEGS COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH W/NW WINDS UP TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER EXPECTED 
THIS AFTN AND AFTN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO 20-35 PERCENT...RED 
FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LKLY.  WL ISSUE AN RFW THROUGH 00Z FOR ALL 
AREAS AS A RESULT.  

&&

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD 
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS 
OVER SOUTH TEXAS.  WEAK RETURN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BEGIN FRIDAY AND 
WITH UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH UPPER ROCKIES ON 
SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN 
MODEL IS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AS COMPARED TO THE 
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF.  FOR NOW...WILL STAY CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION WHICH 
BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN 
WILL BE NE OF AREA...BUT WILL STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND GULF.  FOR MARINE...TREND FOR WINDS/SEAS 
SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT STILL MAY BE NEAR SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  SOME MIXING FROM PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTAL PASSAGE 
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS.  
          
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 52 74 49 / 10 00 00 00
VICTORIA       78 47 72 45 / 10 00 00 00     
LAREDO         81 50 75 50 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES.
                                     SCA FOR ALL WATERS.
                                     RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL ZONES.

$$

MB/80...SHORT-TERM
AP/72...LONG-TERM