000 
FXUS66 KPQR 162235
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST SUN NOV 16 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. MON A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.  MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT A FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS
WA LEAVING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR MASS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DROP SLOWLY SE INTO OREGON
WED AND THU.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
COLD FRONT CLOSE ON ITS HEELS IN THE NW PART OF AREA. SOME STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT CHECKING RAWS SITES IN
COAST RANGE APPEAR TO BE STAYING BELOW WARNING LEVELS.  MODELS
INDICATE GRADIENTS TO EASE UP SOME OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
BACK EDGE TO DEEPEST MOISTURE SINKING SE INTO NW PART OF FORECAST
AREA WITH COLD FRONT...BUT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN INITIALLY STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO KEEP SNOW
ADVISORY GOING IN THE CASCADES TONIGHT. WARM FRONT TO MOVE NE THROUGH
AREA MON...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS CONCENTRATED MAINLY TO THE
N OF FORECAST AREA. FRONT TO HANG UP N OF AREA TUE...AND BELIEVE MOS
POPS TOO HIGH IN THIS SITUATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS
POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRONT TO DROP BACK DOWN WED...WITH
MODELS INDICATING PLENTY OF QPF WITH IT.   

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LACKING IN CONSISTENCY TODAY. THE 
12Z GFS WANTS TO DRIVE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE 
FORECAST AREA THU AM WHILE ECMWF AND 00Z GFS (MRF) ARE SLOWER. THE 
12Z GFS THEN DEVELOPS NLY FLOW OVER THE PAC NW THU NIGHT AND FRI 
WITH THICKNESSES DOWN TO THE 520S. THIS IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 
CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THOSE MODELS MAINTAIN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE 
COAST WITH ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND SW FLOW ALOFT. PER COORDINATION 
WITH SEW WENT WITH THE MORE TEMPERATE TREND (CANADIAN). MRF SHOWS A 
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WEAK SHORT-LIVED H5 RIDGE 
FRI NIGHT/SAT AM...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GOOD WARM FRONT SAT 
AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...TIMING ANY FRONT IN THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD WITH 
SUCH A STRONG JET STREAM WILL BE FUTILE. BUT...ADJUSTED DAY 6-7 
GRIDS TO SHOW A TREND TOWARD WETTER WEATHER WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 
THE PASSES. EXPECT POOR MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONTINUITY OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST.

WEISHAAR                                                            
&&
    
PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST +97799 PDX +86569 SLE +95559 EUG +84448
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
         SNOW ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH
          WASHINGTON CASCADES TONIGHT.
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
          WASHINGTON COAST MON.
&&
$$