000 
FXUS66 KPQR 152237
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
236 PM PST SAT NOV 15 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT INTO WA BY TUE.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK
DOWN THROUGH OREGON BY WED.  
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...ALTHOUGH ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SOME
SHOWERS GOING AT LEAST OVER MOUNTAINS INTO SUN MORNING. WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH IT WED AFTERNOON...BUT WARMER
AIR WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS ABOVE PASSES BY WED AFTERNOON. DECENT
OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS ESP FOR S
WA AND NORTHERN HALF OF OREGON CASCADES.  WILL ISSUE SPS FOR
MOUNTAINS SNOWS SUN NIGHT.  MODELS INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR N TO
LIFT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...GFS PUTS IT UP OVER WA WHILE ETA TENDS TO BE
A LITTLE FURTHER S.  EXPECT MODEL QPF IS OVERDONE S OF FRONT EITHER
WAY...SO WILL LOWER POPS SOME FROM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES FOR MON NIGHT
AND TUE.

LONG TERM...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
WED...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE N THU.  THIS
TRANSLATES TO CONTINUED LIKELY POPS THROUGH THU WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN.  BY FRI CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE CONTINENTAL OUT OF THE N...SO WILL INDICATE
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
   
PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST 9+8988 PDX 898865 SLE 898855 EUG 898844
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
&&

$$