000 
FXUS66 KLOX 031210
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PST MON NOV 3 2003

.SHORT TERM...UPR TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE W COAST
WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SWD THROUGH CA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS
CURRENTLY MOVING THRU SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART...
THESE SHOWERS WERE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS ACRS
SLO COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THESE
SHOWERS APPEARED TO BE WEAKENING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO 
DO SO AS THEY CROSS THE MTNS OF SBA AND VTU COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND
OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. 
THEREFORE...WL JUST USE AREAL COVERAGE WORDING (SCATTERED OR ISOLATED)
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND IN THE MTNS OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO 
ACRS ERN VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT ANY SHOULD END
WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. 

STILL EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN...A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS IN SLO AND SBA COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE AS
MUCH AS ONE HALF ON AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 
6000 FEET...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW COULD FALL AS LOWER AS
4500 FEET IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ON NORTHERN SLOPES.
LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000.  

SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS THE FCST 
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACRS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...AND THE MTNS OF SBA...VTU...AND MAINLY NORTHWESTERN LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...BLV WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 
ADVISORY LVLS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER LOW TEMPS IN SOME AREAS. IN FACT...IF
THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY ENOUGH...FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE 
REQUIRED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FOR THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES FOR MON NIGHT. SOME WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE ACRS THE AREA
ON TUE AND WED AS HGTS RISE...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS. TUE NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE...WITH FREEZING
TEMPS ACTUALLY A BIT MORE LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONT TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK...BUT ALL MAINTAIN GENERAL
TROFFING IN THE ERN PAC. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THE THREAT OF
RAIN WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU OR THU NIGHT ACRS THE CENTRAL 
COAST...AND UNTIL FRI ACRS L.A. COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
JUST TRENDED THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT IF
THE MODELS REMAIN AS THEY AREA...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR THU. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND
AS STRONG MOIST CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALF CONTS ACRS THE
AREA...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES PUSHING ACRS THE ERN PACIFIC.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&