000 
FXUS65 KTFX 311632
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
931 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2003

TODAY...WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE HI-
LINE. WILL ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS CHALLENGING. WILL ACCEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH CENTRAL ZONES WILL
CLEAR OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHWEST WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT. POMEROY

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES TONIGHT BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN-POINT WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS STARTING UP. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING BITTERLY COLD. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES. COLD AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS AND THEREFORE ONLY WARMED THE
SOUTHWEST A FEW DEGREES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEIER

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH INTENSIFIES AS A
STRONG JET DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FORMING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER OREGON...THEN SWINGING
THIS ENERGY NORTHEAST AND INTO MONTANA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
FORMS OVER IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD
OVER-RUNNING SITUATION AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP IN MY SOUTHWEST
ZONES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ENERGY AND OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE
SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MPJ

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MOST OF
THE WARM-UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. HOWEVER...SNOW COVER WILL
HAVE BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN MODELS FOR NOW. MODELS TO KEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. FOR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. WILLIAMSON DC

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF IB 017/006 032/016 031 12200
    EEEBE 011/022 006/021 012/030 018/035 023 03345400000
CTB IB 016/008 031/014 026 12000
    EIIBE 008/015 904/016 011/027 014/032 019 03344400000
HLN EB 021/007 029/014 034 12100
    EEEBE 016/032 011/029 016/030 018/034 021 03456410000
BZN EB 021/001 026/009 031 12400
    EEEBE 015/030 012/028 015/027 013/029 016 03345400000
WEY SB 018/901 028/005 030 12720
    ESSBB 015/028 016/028 014/029 009/031 012 23456523330
DLN IB 019/004 026/012 032 12100
    ESEBE 014/027 014/029 015/031 018/033 021 03456521110
HVR EB 019/005 033/016 033 12000
    EEEBB 010/025 007/020 013/027 014/032 017 00323300000
LWT IB 016/003 031/012 027 12200
    EEEBB 013/025 011/025 013/027 018/032 021 03325400000

.TFX...NONE.

$$