000 
FXUS62 KILM 260632
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EST SUN OCT 26 2003

.DISCUSSION...
A S/WV WILL LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE THE MAIN TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND DIRECTS 
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND MON. AT THE SFC... 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON EVENING AND THE 
ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING. WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL POP TODAY W/ 
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING N THIS MORNING...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS A 
LLJ TAKES SHAPE W/ MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEST CHANCES CONTINUE 
FOR MON W/ UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND OMEGA AT A MAX. DEEPEST MSTR AND 
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS ARE WELL OFFSHORE BY 00Z TUE...HOWEVER W/ 
TROF IN THE H925-H85 LYR LAGGING BEHIND WILL CONTINUE W/ CHANCES 
POPS MON EVENING (HIGHEST NE ZONES). FLOW BECOMES SW TO WESTERLY 
OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

FLOW WILL BE OFF THE ATLC TODAY WHERE TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT WARM 
OFFSHORE. THUS GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE WARM TODAY ALONG THE COAST... 
AND MID AND UPPER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE. ABOVE CLIMO MINS FOR TONIGHT 
W/ WARM SE TO S FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. FAVOR A BLEND OF FWC/MAV 
NUMBERS MON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ALL 
THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SHORT=LIVED BUT WILL STILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE 
60S DURING TUE. 

BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE EXTENDED BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS 
AND YESTERDAY/S RUN. IN PARTICULAR THE LATEST RUN IS LESS AMPLIFIED 
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE W/ THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF. WILL NOT MAKE ANY 
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS A LITTLE MORE 
CONSISTENCY.
  
&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROF INLAND OVER THE 
COASTAL CAROLINAS. TROF MORPHS INTO A WARM FRONT AS LOW IN THE TN 
VALLEY MOVES NE LATER TODAY. WINDS CURRENTLY SE 20 TO 25 KT AT FPSN7 
WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. EXPECTING WINDS TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE 
SE WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY.

SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MON...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE 
AS LOW MOVING INTO THE MID ATLC STATES BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. S WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT EXPECTED BY MIDDAY MON. NW WINDS 10 
TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  
HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THRU THU.

SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT...6 TO 7 FT AT FPSN7...REMAINING 
AROUND THESE LEVELS UNTIL FROPA. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5 FT LATER 
TUE...BECOMING 4 TO 5 FT WED AND THU.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ILM 77 64 74 54 / 30 50 70 40
LBT 76 62 70 50 / 20 60 70 30
FLO 76 62 70 51 / 20 60 70 30
MYR 75 65 73 55 / 30 50 70 30

&&

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC: PFAFF
MARINE: TRL