629 
FXUS66 KPQR 120724 RTD
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. A
SURFACE FRONT IS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH OCEAN
SWELLS GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS AROUND THE LOW ARE REACHING THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS. A COOL
SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL SPREAD IN TONIGHT AND SUN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL RETURN MON...THEN GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...INTENSE LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND TO GRADUALLY FILL
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND INTO SOUTHERN BC. COLDEST AIR
ALOFT MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BEST
INSTABILITY.  SATELLITE HOWEVER SHOWS A BACK EDGE TO BEST SHOWERS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KAST BACK TO THE SW...ADVANCING SLOWLY
E...SO EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS FROM THE NW TO THE SW
OVERNIGHT.  STILL ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING ALONG IN WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING
INTO SUN EVENING.

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNSETTLED BUT
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS LONG WAVE RIDGING APPEARS TO DEVELOP
JUST INLAND FROM THE DISTRICT. HAVE KEPT WED THRU FRI DRY FOR NOW AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONTAL BAND HOLDING OFFSHORE AS A STRONG LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF AK.
&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
DEEP LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NOW WITH A 300 NM
LONG FETCH AREA OF 50-60 KT WINDS SOUTH AND SE OF THE LOW AS THE
OCCLUSION WRAPS AROUND. BUOY 005 ALREADY REPORTING 39 FT SEAS WHICH
WILL DECAY TO AROUND 33 FT AT ASTORIA. HOWEVER SEAS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD. HIGH TIDES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7 FT TONIGHT.  WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO CRITERIA FOR COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO MAKE A DECISION ON THAT. GALES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE OCCLUSION WORKS ITS WAY CLOSER TO OREGON WATERS AND STRONG
GRADIENT CONTINUES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST 77211  PDX 77211  SLE 74--1  EUG 420--
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OR/WA...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE..
.OR/WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
&&

$$