000 
FXUS65 KTFX 010158
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
758 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2003

.DISCUSSION...

NO UPDATE PLANNED. CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT IN A DRY
AIRMASS UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM. DB

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THURSDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A SLIGHT
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS AS COOLER AIR FROM CANADA DRIFTS INTO THE
AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER SW MT AND EXTREME SW MT BECOMES
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY AND CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. NORTHEAST FLOW RETURNS AT
THE SURFACE AND COOLER AIR ALSO HELPS STABILIZE THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO NORTHCENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SWITCH THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
ENTER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT PUSH SOUTH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BY
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH...AND ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO REENTER THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE 3
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. BRUSDA

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SKINNY RIDGE WILL COVER CENTRAL MONTANA DURING
THE PERIOD. PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...BUT WITH
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE...PROGRESSION OF FRONT WILL BE
SLOW. POMEROY

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF UU 034/073 038/070 041 13000
    UUUBB 066/038 067/038 068/040 065/041 062 00000000000
CTB UU 030/070 033/069 038 13000
    UUUBB 064/035 066/035 067/037 064/038 059 00000000000
HLN UU 036/076 038/071 038 13000
    UUUBB 072/038 073/038 073/044 066/039 064 00000000000
BZN UU 033/075 034/073 032 13000
    UUUBB 072/029 073/029 073/036 067/034 063 00000000000
WEY UU 020/068 025/065 024 13000
    UUUBB 072/024 073/024 073/032 059/033 060 0000000100-
DLN UU 039/076 041/072 036 13000
    UUUBB 072/034 073/034 073/037 070/037 063 00000000001
HVR UU 027/073 032/073 037 13000
    UUUBB 067/036 069/036 070/035 068/036 065 00000000000
LWT UU 031/070 036/070 037 13000
    UUUBU 067/033 067/033 068/035 063/037 060 00000000000

.TFX...NONE.

$$