000 
FXUS65 KTFX 242007
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
200 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2003

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DEVELOP IN
ALBERTA. DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP AND ARE ENHANCED BY 700 MB WINDS
THAT INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS IN THE GLACIER PARK REGION BY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS IN AREAS AFFECTED
BY THE WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE WINDY AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...BUT WILL COOL SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE STATE. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WINDS. NORTHWEST COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY PUBLIC HIGHLIGHTS...BUT NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
MAY BE MARGINAL AND WILL RECOMMEND THAT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WATCH THIS
AREA CAREFULLY.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANOTHER MATTER SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH LOOK WIDESPREAD. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT...FUELS ARE VERY DRY
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FIRE
CUSTOMERS AND ADJACENT OFFICES ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
OVER MONTANA. WINDS WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. SYSTEM APPEARS DRY...SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MPJ

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST STATES TO CONTINUE THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MID 50S TO MID 60S) TO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
COOLER AIR SHOULD STAY OUT OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  COULSTON

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE SLIGHTLY AS TO
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD. GFS STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CAMP

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BB 048/076 044/068 036 14000
    UBBBB 067/035 064/032 062/036 068/040 068 00000000000
CTB BU 046/070 043/065 035 14000
    BBBBB 061/033 061/030 060/033 063/038 063 00000000000
HLN BB 045/079 046/073 042 14000
    UBBBB 070/037 070/037 069/041 071/043 071 00000000000
BZN BB 037/077 042/075 032 14000
    UUBBB 071/034 069/035 069/038 071/039 071 00000000000
WEY BB 034/070 038/070 025 14000
    UUUBB 059/029 060/031 060/034 065/035 065 00000000000
DLN BB 043/078 046/076 038 14000
    UUUBB 072/038 070/040 070/043 071/044 071 00000000000
HVR BB 039/075 042/069 036 14000
    UBBBB 067/033 060/031 058/033 065/039 065 00000000000
LWT BN 040/072 042/066 035 14000
    UBBBB 063/033 061/030 060/033 063/037 063 00000000000

.TFX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ZONES 112
       THROUGH 118.

$$