000 
FXUS61 KCAR 221931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING 
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TO 
THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES 
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE 
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION...
TESTING THE BACKUP OF WFO CAR GRIDDED FORECASTS TODAY.  BACKUP 
PROCEEDED OKAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR PROBLEMS.  WFO GYX PREPARED CAR 
GRIDS AND DERIVED TEXT PRODUCTS FROM THE GRIDDED DATABASE.

IN THE SHORT TERM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WEATHER OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR 
SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FOREAST AREA PER 
PREVIOUS THINKING.  MAV MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND 
USED IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS MIN TEMPERATURES.  12Z MODEL RUNS 
WERE A BIT SLOWER ON MOVING SHOWERS INTO AREA TUESDAY SO HAVE 
DELAYED TIMING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT CHANCE POPS IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHEST POPS AREAWIDE EARLY 
TUESDAY NIGHT AS PREFRONTAL SHOWERS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.  USED THE 
ETA QPF AND MODELED POPS TO FIT QPF FORECAST AND ETA MOS POPS.  MAV 
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND USED IN THE GRIDS FOR 
TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURES. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
REMAINS UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.  USED 
EXISTING GRIDS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.  
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP, SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON THE 
00Z GFS AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

FOR THE MARINE FORECAST EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ABOVE 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
  

.CAR...SCA MAY BE REQUIRED TUE NIGHT.

$$

WHEELER