000 
FXUS63 KLBF 090845
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

...FORECAST FOCUS IS THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAY THEN WHEN DOES IT END...

.DISCUSSION...
500MB BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US IS BREAKING DOWN AS A 
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES EAST. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES 
WILL MOVE OVER AREA WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACTIVE WEATHER 
EAST OF FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WILL BE 
IN THE REGION TO AID AS A KICKER FOR CONVECTION...WITH A COLD FRONT 
TRAVERSING AREA IN TIME FOR A NICE WEEKEND. 

LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS 
MORNING AS MOISTURE HAS FINALLY INCREASE TO MAKE A DENT IN THE DRY 
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET 
WEAKENS...HOWEVER A BRIEF BREAK WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
AS SURFACE WARMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE CAPE VALUES TO 
1500-2000 J/KG AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS/MOVES OUT OF 
EASTERN COLORADO. 

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUES THE SAME PATTERN AS TROUGH AND 
DISTURBANCES INTERACT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW MAY 
REACH SEVERE LIMITS...BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ON WEDNESDAY 
IS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

THURSDAY WILL SEE THE END OF THE MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION AS 
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SHORT 
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE 
SEEMS A BIT TO COLD BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT BUT BARES WATCHING OVER 
THE WEEK. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MASEK