000 
FXUS65 KTFX 060305
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MDT FRI SEP 5 2003

UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES BUT NOT THE STATE

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...ETA INITIALIZATION OF A VORTICITY CENTER IN IDA/PIH AREA 
LOOKS BETTER THAN 6HR FORECAST FROM THE GFS WHICH HAD IT NEAR WEY. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CENTER MOVING N IN LINE WITH ETA SHORT 
TERM TREND. LOCAL RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION 
ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA OR UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH VORTICITY 
CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE IS MOVING N DO NOT SEE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY 
LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR S SO WILL BACK OFF POPS THERE TO CHANCE 
CATEGORY. WILL HAVE LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE N IN LINE WITH 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST LOWS LOOK OK N EXCEPT AT HVR WHERE WILL 
RAISE THE LOW A LITTLE. DUE TO CLOUDINESS IN THE SE WILL RAISE LOWS 
A FEW DEGREES AT BZN/WEY. BLANK 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY 
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHEAST. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTH INTO 
THE HELENA VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE 
NORTH INTO NORTHCENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS 
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO EXIT HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES BY THE MID 
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. I WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS 
500-1000MB THICKNESS CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE 576DM. BRUSDA

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA AND OVER THE ROCKIES. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. ALONG WITH THIS TROF...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE ZONES AND DROP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMALS.  STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND LAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO
PLACE ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY SUNRISE. TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. JET STREAK
OF ABOUT 100 KNOTS AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVERHEAD
ON THURSDAY. WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
WITH WIND FOR THE PLAINS.  VOGELSANG

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF KB 056/089 055/090 051 17002
    EBBBB 071/041 066/045 068/040 064/041 064 02323422220
CTB KB 054/086 053/085 047 17000
    EEBBB 067/039 063/038 065/038 062/039 062 04223422220
HLN KB 056/089 055/089 051 17222
    EBEBB 073/040 067/043 069/040 067/041 067 01323322220
BZN KB 052/087 048/085 045 17222
    EBBBB 071/036 067/041 069/036 067/037 067 0-323322220
WEY EB 044/074 039/079 040 17332
    EEBBB 062/034 062/032 064/029 065/030 065 --223333330
DLN BB 055/082 054/086 045 17232
    EBBBB 068/037 067/040 069/039 069/040 069 01223322220
HVR KB 058/092 055/091 053 17002
    BBBBB 077/041 067/044 069/040 065/041 065 21323333330
LWT KB 054/088 053/088 049 17002
    EBBBB 070/039 069/043 070/039 066/040 066 --223433330

.TFX...NONE.

$$