000 
FXUS62 KILM 310656
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

PUBLIC: WESTERN LOBE OF BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE OVER THE 
EASTERN CAROLINAS THRU TUE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OTHER THAN THAT GENERATED BY THE SEA BREEZE 
THRU THEN. SLT CHC AFTN POPS SHOULD COVER THAT. GENERAL LOWERING OF 
THICKNESS VALUES TODAY SHOULD HELP DROP MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO. 
HEAT INDICES TODAY STAYED FOR THE MOST PART JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES. 
SO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS...WILL NOT BE HEADLINING ZONES TODAY. 
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO THRU TUE...WHILE MAINTAINING 
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND...BEFORE BRINGING THEM BACK DOWN TO AROUND 
SEASONAL LEVELS STARTING WED. AVN HAS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING 
WED...THIS SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN AND POPS BACK UP FOR 
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.  

MARINE: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WATERS 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AFTER STARTING OFF S-SW THIS 
MORNING...WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE 
SHIFTS NE. GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN S-SE 10 KT OR LESS 
THROUGH WED...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE S-SW THU AS A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. 

WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO PICK UP THE 17 SECOND PERIOD 
SWELL THAT IS BEING OBSERVED AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS PREVIOUS 
FORECASTER HAD MENTIONED...THE SE SWELL APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED 
WITH AN ERLY FETCH THAT HAD BEEN PERSISTING S OF 30N...AND NOT 
FABIAN. WAVEWATCH HOWEVER DOES SHOW INCREASING SEAS RESULTING FROM A 
SE SWELL BY LABOR DAY...AND WILL INDICATE SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. 
AFTER TALKING WITH OPC...BELIEVE SWELLS FROM FABIAN WILL BEGIN 
REACHING THE WATERS BY MID WEEK AND WILL HOLD SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT 
RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FCSTID = 40
ILM  90 73 89 72 / 20 10 20 10
LBT  91 71 91 69 / 20 10 20 10
FLO  92 70 91 70 / 20 10 20 10
MYR  88 74 86 73 / 20 10 20 10

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: KREITNER
MARINE: JAQ

$$