000 
FXUS64 KLUB 140905
AFDLBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2003

.DAY ONE...
UPPER LOW ENTERING W TX ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE 
QUICKLY WWD TODAY ENDING UP OVER SE NM BY 00Z. SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON E SIDE OF LOW WITH SOME 
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER N CENTRAL TX AND ALONG GULF COAST. DEEP MOIST 
AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS AREA BY THIS AFTN AND THIS 
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS S 
PLAINS AND WRN ROLLING PLAINS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE TOO GREAT 
THUS KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDER. BEST CONCENTRATION/POPS 
WILL SHIFT WWD WITH TIME AS ANY SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING MVS W 
UNDER MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO LINGER 
THROUGH SUNSET THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF AS DYNAMICS MV W AND AREA 
BEGINS TO COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER LWR MS VALLEY. 
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL HV BIGGEST IMAPCT ON MAX TEMPS AND 
GENERALLY EXPECT MOST PLACES TO TOP OUT IN LOWER TO MID 80S.   
 
FCSTID = 24

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN VCNTY OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY 
MORNING. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS 
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A VORT LOBE WILL MOVE AROUND 
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...PASSING CLOSE TO THE SOUTH 
PLAINS...AND PROVIDING A BIT OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.  COMBINED WITH A 
FAIRLY MOIST ATMOS THIS WARRANTS RETAINING CURRENT POPS FOR FRIDAY. 
AFTER THIS...RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY OVER THE REGION ON SAT INTO SUN 
WITH RAPID HEIGHT RISES. A FEW ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING 
AFTN...MAINLY IN WEST. SUN AND MON LOOK HOT AND DRY WITH RIDGE AXIS 
VERY NEAR WTX.  RIDGE PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME TUE-WED AS EAST COAST 
TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED AND SOME ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE WEST 
SIDE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS MAY SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPS AND 
INCREASE CHANCE OF PRECIP MID-WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY TOO 
HIGH TO ADD INTO ZONES.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS.

FCSTID = 33

FRIONA      81 58 84 62 / 40 40 30 20
TULIA       84 62 85 65 / 30 30 30 20
PLAINVIEW   83 63 86 65 / 30 30 30 20
LEVELLAND   82 60 85 64 / 40 40 30 20
LUBBOCK     83 63 86 65 / 30 40 30 20
BROWNFIELD  82 64 85 67 / 40 40 30 20
CHILDRESS   86 65 90 68 / 30 20 20 20
SPUR        84 66 89 69 / 30 30 30 20
ASPERMONT   84 67 92 71 / 30 20 30 20

.LBB...NONE.

$$