000 
FXUS65 KMSO 080303
AFDMSO

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
900 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2003

.SHORT TERM...WILL UPDATE ZONES AND SFP TO DIMINISH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
ONLY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM MISSOULA TO SEELEY LAKE.  THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL.  HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SIERRAS TOWARD SOUTHEAST OREGON.  THIS WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.  WITH LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY...COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS THINKING AND IT STILL LOOKS SOUND.  ONLY
ADJUSTED TIMING.

NEW MESO ETA HAS SIMILAR CAPE VALUES BY EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW...
BUT SEEMS TO LACK ORGANIZED FORCING.  LIKE IDEA OF EVEN LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAN WE SAW TODAY.             WHITMORE

.LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY FROM
COOLING TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND STILL PRETTY WARM OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS
OVER THE REGION TO NEAR THE DIVIDE. BY TUESDAY...THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR COOLING THROUGHOUT THE AREA
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS. EXTENDED MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SHIFTING THE OFFSHORE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. HENCE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WETTEST...COOLEST
AND BREEZY DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOST AREAS THURSDAY. FELSCH

.MSO...NONE.

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB BBB 053/094 053/097 055/099 33111122
     BBEE 060/089 053/083 053/083 053/081 3022222333
FCA BBB 049/088 051/090 053/094 33111122
     BBEE 057/087 050/081 050/081 050/078 3022222333
POL BBB 062/089 062/091 063/095 33122112
     BBEE 060/088 053/082 053/082 053/080 3022222333
MSO BBB 051/090 053/093 055/096 33111112
     BBBB 059/089 052/083 052/083 052/082 3022222333
HMM BBB 053/091 054/094 056/097 33211112
     BBBB 060/093 053/084 053/084 053/081 3022222333
BTM BBB 046/087 049/091 051/095 33222221
     BBBB 054/092 047/082 047/085 047/078 3012233333
ORO BBB 061/095 063/098 064/098 33011112
     BBEE 061/091 058/085 058/085 058/084 3022222332
GRV BBB 052/089 053/094 057/093 33011112
     BBBB 059/086 052/080 052/080 052/078 3022222332
SMN BBB 048/090 052/093 053/094 33122112
     BBBB 059/091 052/084 052/087 052/082 3022222333

$$