800 
FXUS61 KCAR 291946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...KCBW 88D SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES AT TIME. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING THEN EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS WHERE
DYNAMICS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.

ON MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION TO AN END. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW IT REMAINING
RATHER UNSTABLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES.

ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF RW/TRW ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES AS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED CLIP THE AREA IN THE BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.

EXTENDED...MODEL DISCREPANCY INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY. ETA MODEL KEEPS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN BORDER REGION WHERE AS GFS WANTS TO PUSH
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. PREFER NOT TO BRING FRONT ACROSS AS
QUICKLY AS ADVERTISED BY GFS SO WILL CONFINE ANY RW/TRW TO NORTHERN ZONES.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
SOME ISOLATED TSTMS CANT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF KCAR AND KHUL
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO START TO AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITIES LOWERING
TO MVFR MAINLY KCAR AND KHUL SITES.


DUDA