000 
FXUS64 KEWX 281903
AFDSAT

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
155 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

LATE AFTN SHRA CONTINUING OVER EAST PART OF CWA TODAY IN REASPONSE
TO DAYTIME HEATING IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SUBTLE
MODIFIED FNTL BNDRY...THAT CAME THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN IN THE EVE HOURS.  ON 
SUNDAY WILL SHOW WDLY SCT DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA OVER EAST PART OF CWA...
WITH NO POPS FURTHER WEST.  BY MONDAY WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA TROF TRIES 
TO EVOLVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ON SOUTHERN PART OF MORE 
PROGRESSIVE TROF TO THE NNE.  THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER 
MAINLY EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF AREA TUESDAY.  WILL SHOW POPS A LITTLE 
HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY...IN THE 25 TO 30 PCT 
RANGE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR SHRA MON 
AND TUE IN THIS SUMMER PATTERN...EXPECT ACITIVITY TO CALM DOWN IN 
THE EVE.  BY WED AND THU THE WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA TROF IS SHOWN TO 
DRIFT SE AS WEAK EARLY JULY HIGH ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER 
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  WILL SHOW CHC OF SHRA WED EAST HALF OF 
CWA...THEN SHOW SLOW DECREASE IN POPS THURSDAY...WITH CHC OF SHRA 
EXTREME EAST PART OF S CNTRL TX TO SLGT CHC FURTHER WEST.

BY FRIDAY THE 4TH AND SATURDAY THE 5TH...THE COMPOSITE PATTERN IN 
TIME ATTEMPTS TO SHOW MORE STABLE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EVOLVE ALOFT 
FROM 700 TO 200 HPA HIGH FROM THE WEST.  WILL CONT TO SLOWLY REDUCE 
POPS FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST PART OF AREA TO NIL WEST.  FOR 
SATURDAY WILL SHOW LESS THAN 20 PCT POPS EXTREME EAST PART OF CWA TO 
NO POPS FURTHER WEST.    

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS 070/093 070/092 070 1002-
SAT 074/094 074/093 072 1001-
DRT 074/096 074/097 074 2002-

.EWX...NONE.

08/11/DC