000 
FXUS61 KPHI 280702
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2003

WE WILL BE USING THE GFS THRU SUN DAY AND THEN SWITCH TO THE ETA 
BEYOND THAT WITH THIS FCST PKG. GFS INIT BETTER IN THE SERN U.S. 
WHERE OUR NEXT PCPN SHOT IS COMG. IT HAS ALSO BEEN CALLING THIS SHOT 
LNGR THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MDLS. GRID SCALE FEEDBACK PBLMS THAT 
START CROPPING IN THE CNTRL U.S. ON SUN MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO USE IT 
BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT PAT TO DECIPHER AS 
MDLS HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE CLOSE PROX OF THIS SRN STREAM AND THEN 
NRN STREAM FNTL SYS. SOMETIMES THEY ARE WRONGFULLY MERGED...BUT FOR 
NOW THIS IS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO DETERMINE. UPSHOT...WITH SWRLY 
FLOW ALF...THERE WILL BE ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PCPN CHCS AS MSTR 
WILL RETURN LATER TDY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 
FLOW ALF TO VEER MORE INTO THE NW TO END OUR PCPN SHOTS COME MON 
NGT. MOST OF THE CUR FCST WILL BE MAINTAINED. WE WOULDN/T WANT TO 
BREAK OUR STRING OF WEEKENDS WITH PCPN...WOULD WE? TDY APRS TO BE 
THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AND IT WILL BE CHEERIER UP N.

A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES OR AT LEAST MID LVL CLDS CONT TO MOVE ACRS THE 
SERN PART OF OUR CWA. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT LWR LVLS...IT WILL BE 
DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO CONT AND WE WILL START ZONES DRY. CWA WILL 
HAVE THE JET OVER US TDY...SO MOST OF US WILL NOT BE SHAKING THE 
HIGH CLOUDS. WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE THICKER IN OUR SRN ZNS AND 
THINNEST UP N. FULL SUN MACROS SUG 80S TO AROUND 90. BUT...CLOUD 
COVER SHOULD INHIBIT THOSE HIER NUMBERS DOWN S. MAX TEMPS IN SERN 
ZNS THO LOOK A BIT TOO LOW GIVEN THE FRMR...BUT LOOK REASONABLE 
ELSW. 

FIRST SHRT WV ERLY THIS EVE SHLD NOT HAVE ENUF MSTR TO PRODUCE 
PCPN...BUT THIS SHLD BE LESS OF A PBLM WITH THE SECOND ONE. AGAIN 
THIS DOES NOT LOOK SPECTACULAR...BUT THERE IS UPSTREAM PCPN OCRG
AND THERE RMNS A HINT OF WAA/THETA E ADVT ACRS THE SERN PART OF OUR 
CWA TNGT WITH THE JET SCRUCTURE ALF RMNG FVRBL. THUS WE WILL CONT 
THE CHC POPS TWD DAYBREAK. WE WILL REMOVE THEM IN A SLICE OF NRN ZNS 
THAT APR TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE ACTION. THINK THE WRMR NGM MOS 
LOOKS BETTER GIVEN THE AMT OF CLDS.

SUN MAY VERY WELL TURN INTO A BETTER DAY THAN THE CUR FCST. CWA 
MIGHT BE BTWN SYS. SHRT WV AND ASSOCD RAIN SHOT S/B EXITING THE CWA 
DURG THE MRNG. THEN IF ENUF CAPE CAN BE SUPPLIED GIVEN THE WIND 
STRUCTURE ALF...A PRETTY HEFTY SVR WX EVENT (BY THIS YEARS 
STANDARDS) MIGHT OCCUR ACRS UPSTATE NY. WE KNOW THE MDLS TEND TO 
OVERDO THE FCSTD INSTAB FTHR INTO THE FUTURE. BUT...FOR NOW THERE IS 
MDT INSTAB DURG SUN AFTN THAT SCTD TSRAS COULD BUBBLE. THERE IS 
ALWAYS THE PSBLTY ALSO THAT SOME OF THE ACTVTY IN NY STA COULD WORK 
ITS WAY INTO OUR CWA LATE. THIS WILL BE THE REASON TO KEEP IN CHC 
POPS IN MOST OF OUR ZONES FOR SUN NGT. 

CDFNT WHICH MAKES GOOD HEADWAY INTO MON MRNG THEN SEEMS TO STALL AND 
WAIT FOR THE UPPER SUPPORT TO BACK INTO THE NW FTHR. THIS LEAVES OUR 
CWA (FOR NOW) IN A PRIME RGN FOR CONVECTION (PSBLY SVR) GIVEN THE 
FCSTD INSTAB AND PROX TO ENTR RNG OF THE H2.5 JET NOT TO MNTN NW 
FLOW ALF MAKES FOR NASTIER STORMS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ABV THE FCSTD 
DROP OF THETA E WITH HGT WOULD SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS. LASTLY DI
HAS BEEN WORKING THE RADAR/HYDRO SHIFT FOR EVERY HECTIC WX DAY SO 
FAR THIS MONTH AND HE/S SCHEDULED TO WORK ON MON. FULL SUN MACROS 
SUPPORT GFS MOS MAX TEMPS AND WON/T DIFFER MUCH.

WE/RE NOT GOING TO MAKE CHGS TO THE EXTDD. WOULD THINK LO PRES IN NW 
FLOW WOULD NOT BACK AGAINST THE FLOW AS THE GFS HAS IT. OTHER RANDOM 
ELEMENT WILL BE WHAT BCMS OF YUCATAN PENIN LOW. MDLS DIFFER FROM 
LINGERING IT IN THE GULF TO THE CAN SEF MAKING IT A HEFTY EXTRAP SYS 
IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ALL IN ALL TEMPS WILL PBLY NOT DIFFER MUCH 
FROM CLIMO...MATBE A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE...THEN AGAIN IT IS JULY.
  
MARINE: NO PBLMS AND WATER TEMPS ARE RISING AT THE SHORE
 
TU FOR ALL THE 12ING THIS MRNG.

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$

TFG