000 
FXUS66 KLOX 171059
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2003

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL 
COAST...AND THE CATALINA EDDY HAS FILLED THE INNER WATERS AND COASTS 
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. STILL A BIT 
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SBP 
COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE EDDY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS 
OUTER WATER WINDS DECAY...BUT REMAIN MODERATE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPS WILL LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE 
FLOW INCREASES.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN 
WEATHER AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE MARINE LAYER 
WILL LIFT AND ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE INNER VALLEYS OF SAN 
LUIS OBISPO...AND TO REACH THE COASTAL SLOPES SOUTH OF POINT 
CONCEPTION.

GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO PLACING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ZONES 
WEST OF THE COASTAL SLOPES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FOR WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS DUE TO THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE 
FLOW. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HAVE 
DECIDED TO KEEP IT OUT...BUT WILL REASSESS LATER.

STUDIED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAREFULLY AND FOUND NO SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. 
THE MOST WE CAN HOPE FOR WILL BE A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE 
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY. THE WEEKEND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AS 
HEIGHTS INCREASE...BUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. 
THIS WEEKEND...NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE THE 
RULE FOR ALL COASTS...AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE COASTAL SLOPES. SKIES 
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR MUCH BEYOND THE INNER VALLEYS AS 
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS DEEP.  

LAX 000. HILGENDORF.

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

$$