740 
FXUS65 KTFX 120207
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT930
810 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2003

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...UPDATE PLANNED BY 9 PM...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE CWA ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHTNING STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE 
BORDER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE CONTDVD CONTINUES TO BUILD 
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CLEARING A FAIRLY WARM 
AIRMASS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE 
CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM FIRST PERIOD AND FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD WORDING.


THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHWESTERN MT FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW ALOFT OVER GLACIER
PARK AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A POSSIBILITY.

FRIDAY....SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CWA. WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DEVELOPS IN CANADA AND MOVES TOWARDS
NORTHWESTERN CWA DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. LOOK FOR INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMP

FRIDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BE IN FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL POKE
JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PUSH A DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA.

MONDAY...RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
AGAIN. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT MOIST...BUT CHANCE POPS ARE
DESERVED AT THIS TIME. POMEROY

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO UPDATES. MODELS CONTINUE A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION TUESDAY...THEN KICK IT OUT
BY WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. WILLIAMSON DC

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF UB 046/077 050/080 049 07000
    BBBBB 074/048 077/047 081/047 078/047 078 45003444442
CTB BT 045/074 046/078 048 07000
    BBBBB 071/047 074/046 075/046 073/046 073 56003444442 
HLN UB 048/080 050/079 050 07000
    BBBBB 077/050 078/049 080/049 080/049 080 44--2444442
BZN UB 043/079 045/080 049 07000
    EBBBB 076/045 078/044 078/044 078/044 078 34113333331
WEY UB 035/071 036/072 043 07000
    EBBBB 072/042 074/041 070/041 069/041 069 32--3333331
DLN UB 044/078 046/079 045 07000
    BBBBB 076/045 074/044 078/044 075/044 075 23--2333331
HVR BB 049/080 052/084 053 07300
    UBBBB 076/050 080/049 081/049 080/049 080 35003333332
LWT UB 045/076 049/082 052 07000
    BBBBB 071/047 077/046 073/046 075/046 075 34003444442

.TFX...NONE.

$$