286 
ACUS11 KWNS 082338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082338 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/ERN KS/CENTRAL-ERN OK/WRN MO/NWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 308...311...

VALID 082338Z - 090145Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES OVER FAR SERN NEB...ERN
KS...NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN OK AND WRN MO OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

A TORNADIC SUPERCELL MOVING INTO NERN OK IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
TULSA AREA BETWEEN 00-01Z.  TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BETWEEN 0030-02Z.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN NEB INTO ERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN OK
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35-45 KT.  23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A
993 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTAL KS NEAR MHK...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESEWD TO JUST SOUTH OF IXD/OJC AND THEN EWD THROUGH
CENTRAL MO TO JUST SOUTH OF STL.  STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE
LOCATED OVER SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NEWD WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD.  WARM SECTOR
REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

..PETERS.. 05/08/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...GLD...

38399782 39419747 39549827 39919979 40839944 40479530
40139309 34849440 34029764 35509777