149 
ACUS11 KWNS 080852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080851 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-081215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR...MUCH OF ERN/NRN KS...PORTIONS
SRN/ERN NEB...SWRN IA...WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
295...

VALID 080851Z - 081215Z

HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND EXPAND NWD/NEWD FROM
PRESENT WW 195 ACROSS SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO THROUGH 12Z AND
BEYOND.  ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY IN BROAD...NW-SE
ORIENTED BELT FROM S-CENTRAL NEB SEWD TO NWRN AR...CORRESPONDING TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME N OF SFC WARM
FRONT NOW ANALYZED OVER NRN OK.  DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
BROAD 45-60 KT LLJ NOW OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP DATA...AND FCST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER FOREDAWN HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER
NEB/SW IA TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER NERN OK/S-CENTRAL KS.	AREA OF
FAVORABLE CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ELEVATED HAILSTORM WILL EXPAND
OVER MORE OF LOWER MO VALLEY REGION.  MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING CINH
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OK/KS WILL ALSO EXPAND NEWD BEHIND SW EDGE OF
CURRENT CONVECTION...REDUCING SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM SW-NE ACROSS
WW 295 WITH TIME.

..EDWARDS.. 05/08/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...GLD...

36759808 37779953 39349930 38529310 36099360 

39369932 38689940 40400113 41540046 41869965 42479828
42239642 41869473 41179359 39829302 38819297 38539306