741 
ACUS11 KWNS 070236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070235 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-070430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275...

VALID 070235Z - 070430Z

CONTINUE WW.

SURFACE MESO HIGH/COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW
HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF SPARTA IL AND FARMINGTON MO AND IS
BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH SUPERCELLS WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR THE CAPE
GIRARDEAU AREA ON NOSE OF SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.   

WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BECOMING MAXIMIZED ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...BENEATH STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW FIELD...INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
NEAR/NORTH AND WEST OF THE OWENSBORO AND PADUCAH KY AREAS THROUGH
06Z.  LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
BASED MOSTLY ABOVE COLD OUTFLOW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


..KERR.. 05/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

38149019 38658932 38278803 37848744 37238777 36918878
36888938 37089014 37279033