841 
ACUS11 KWNS 052127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052127 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-060000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052127Z - 060000Z

A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN MI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.	THE AREA IS
BEING CONSIDERED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. 

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER S CENTRAL MI...WHICH
IS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT.  UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S F IS PRODUCING
MLCAPES VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG.  VERY COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH
THE LONGEST LIVED STORMS.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED...GIVEN
0-3 KM SRH UP TO 300 M2/S2 AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  

..JEWELL.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

41808578 42258541 42948489 43238466 43588390 43398314
43198254 42828264 41718315 41638363 41588499