049 
FXUS65 KTFX 031442
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
840 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2003

.SHORT TERM...ALREADY UPDATED THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. A 
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING BRINGING LOW 
CLOUDS AND FOG. MODELS NOT HANDLING THE FRONT WELL AT ALL. THEY STILL 
INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THIS IS 
OBVIOUSLY NOT THE CASE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE 
HIGH-LINE THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL 
UPDATE THE ZONES AGAIN AROUND NOON OR ONE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FOG 
OR TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IF THE FOG HANGS ON.  

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS 
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKING AT 
SATELLITE AND MODELS IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND 
INCREASED POPS. WEB CAM AT BIG HOLE PASS (7400 FT) SHOWS SOME SNOW 
STARTING TO ACCUMULATE IN THE GRASSY AREAS. MEANWHILE...AT MONIDA PASS 
(6800 FT) AND WEST YELLOWSTONE (6600 FT) RAIN IS STILL FALLING WITH 
TEMPERATURES NEAR 35. WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET WITH THE 
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEIER

.EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER NORTHERN 
IDAHO AND WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE AREA SOMEWHAT 
UNSETTLED...AND KEEPS THE AIRMASS COOL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH 
ACROSS NEVADA WEDNESDAY...THUS PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER SPLIT FLOW 
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS KEEP 
THE INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NEVADA 
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHWEST ZONES UNDER UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST 
FLOW...WHILE THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE COOLING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES 
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ZELZER

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BW 067/040 056/036 055 05245
    WBBEB 030/052 034/058 035/059 037/055 037 55440003333
CTB BW 063/036 054/034 052 05145
    EBBEB 028/050 033/054 037/057 035/052 035 44440003333
HLN BW 062/042 057/037 057 05466
    WBBEB 032/052 034/060 036/060 039/060 039 55440003333
BZN TW 055/038 057/033 057 05776
    WBBEB 028/052 030/058 033/059 037/057 037 55330003333
WEY TW 045/030 050/025 046 05888
    WBBEB 025/043 024/045 026/050 030/050 030 66332223333 
DLN TW 052/038 055/032 052 05+66
    EBBEB 027/048 030/053 032/055 035/055 035 44440003333
HVR BW 068/042 063/040 058 05135
    EBBEB 031/055 034/058 039/065 041/061 041 55330003333
LWT BW 066/038 058/034 055 05345
    EBBEB 029/050 033/056 036/058 037/055 037 44330003333

.TFX...NONE.

$$