940 
FXUS66 KLOX 030449
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 PM PDT FRI MAY 2 2003

RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING. IT HAD LET UP
OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE EXPANDING THERE. PCPN
RATES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 0.15 INCH OR LESS PER HOUR OVER THE COAST AND
VALLEYS...AND 0.25 INCH OR LESS PER HOUR OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NOTED. HIEST
STORM TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 1.35 INCHES AT BRANCH MOUNTAIN (SLO
COUNTY)...1.30 INCHES AT ORTEGA HILL (VTU COUNTY)...1.22 INCHES AT
REFUGIO PASS (SBA COUNTY)...AND 1.22 INCHES AT SISAR PEAK (VTU COUNTY).
PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN PLACES...MOSTLY
THE MOUNTAINS. PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGING THE RAIN WAS CENTERED NEAR
34.5N 126W AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR
7000 FEET THIS EVENING BASED ON RAWS TEMPS (34 DEG AT BIG PINES...6900
FOOT ELEVATION). ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ABOVE
7000 FEET. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE VTU/L.A.
MOUNTAINS...PLEASE SEE LAXWSWLOX FOR DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THRU
SAT. 130-140 KT JET WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE DISTRICT
THRU SAT...WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION UNDER THE FAVORED
LEFT FRONT QUAD...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCE PCPN SAT
MORNING. THE LATEST MESO-ETA QPF REFLECTS THIS WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THRU SAT AS WELL. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
DISTRICT SAT EVENING. EVEN SO...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FINALLY TURNS WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SUN
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN ALL
AREAS SUN AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS.  

THE LATEST GFS IS FORECASTING A GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO 
PERSIST OVER THE REGION MON THRU WED. TEMPS SHOULD BECOME MILDER
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. 

LAX 9920. SIRARD

.LOX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX)
       MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX)
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). 
       
$$