000 
FXAK67 PAJK 200626
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 PM ADT SAT APR 19 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...OLD STACKED LOW CENTER NOW NEAR 50N/139W AND
CONTINUING ITS SLOW SOUTHEAST DRIFT. WEAK ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDS BACK ALONG THE EASTERN GLFAK. FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE
STILL SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS GENERALLY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. OTHER FEATURE TO WATCH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT
CENTER OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MOVING NORTH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH ANY PRECIP IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD BUT WILL BE SPREADING MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN
THREE ZONES BY MORNING. 

LOW CENTER STILL GENERATING A LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 10-14 FEET
MOVING INTO AREA 1B AND EASTERN 2A. AS LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH
THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH SUN MORNING.


.LONG RANGE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO CANADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SUNDAY AND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COASTS MOUNTAINS TO
STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW TO HELP KEEP ANY PRCIP AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY.
THE LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE OUTER COAST
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL INCREASE TO GALES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY UNTIL SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PULL MOST OF ITS ENERGY WITH IT. AS
THIS HAPPEN IT WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE AND MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE DRY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS
BEING WEAK OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST ALASKA
MOSTLY DRY BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK SYSTEMS DRIFTING ACROSS THE GULF FROM A PARENT LOW IN
THE BEARING. 



.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA DUE TO SEA 1B 2A.
         GALES OUTSIDE TUES


PES/ABJ