724 
FXUS62 KILM 260821
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EST WED MAR 26 2003

COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST 
TONIGHT AND OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY.  DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY 
LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT.  PLAN TO GO WITH 
SMALL POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT 
REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ARE NOW LOOKING A LITTLE BLEAKER 
WITH RETURN FLOW RAPIDLY SETTING UP THU AND THU NIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SOME DOUBT OUT IN TIME REGARDING 
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO THIS 
SHORT WAVE.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE INDICATING A SMALL POSSIBILITY 
OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE 
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AXIS. PLAN TO GO WITH 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT NO PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT AND FRI.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM 
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN.

MARINE: HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET 
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.  COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS 
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING N AND DIMINISHING SOME IN ITS WAKE. 
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE E THU AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE 
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FRI INTO SAT AS THERE IS DISAGREEMENT 
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WHILE BOTH THE ETA AND GFS DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN STREAM IN THE FL VICINITY AND SHIFT IT 
N...THE TIMING AND TRACK DIFFER. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE...ALTHOUGH 
LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AND HAVE THE LOW WASH OUT AS A 
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THEREFORE WILL INDICATE 
WINDS VEERING SE TO SW FRI INTO SAT. THANKS MHX FOR THE COORDINATION 
ON THIS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY LEVELS FRI. 

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUN MORNING. APPEARS THAT THERE 
WILL BE STRONG CAA IN ITS WAKE...SO PLAN ON INCREASING WINDS TO 
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. 

FCSTID =   31
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
ILM   75  52  70  52 /  30  30  30  10
LBT   77  50  70  48 /  30  30  10  10
FLO   78  50  71  48 /  30  30  20  10
MYR   70  53  69  53 /  30  30  30  10

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: RAN
MARINE: JAQ