000 
WGUS61 KBUF 192055
FFABUF
NYZ006>008-200400-

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR COUNTIES 
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
LEWIS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON. 

THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT...ABOVE FREEZING 
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING 
TO THE NORTH COUNTY STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT. 

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY  
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING 
RAIN...BUT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY CHANGING IT ALL TO RAIN.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY 
FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO 
THE RAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S THURSDAY 
NIGHT AND WARM INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...SO THE MELTING OF SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE. 

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SPOTTER 
REPORTS INDICATE THAT SNOW ON THE GROUND EXCEEDS 30 INCHES IN SPOTS 
WITH A WATER EQUIVALENT OF OVER 12 INCHES. 

THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS DUE TO 
ICE BREAKING UP ON CREEKS AND STREAMS CAUSING ICE JAMS.

REMEMBER...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 
FLOODING BUT FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.
  
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. UPDATES CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBSITE 
AT HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF (ALL LOWER CASE) OR HEARD ON NOAA 
WEATHER RADIO.

TMA