775 
FXUS61 KLWX 170733
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003

.EARLY PERIODS /TDA AND TNGT/...UPR LOW HAS OPENED AND MOVED NE. 
AREA LEFT IN LLVL SOUP...ACTUALLY A PINCH OF HMDTY OUT THERE W/ NIL 
WND...DONT XPCT CONDS TO IMPRV ANY TIL AFTR SUNRISE...AND THEN ONLY 
SLOWLY. AS HAS BEEN WITNESSED PAST CPL DAYS...MARCH SUN SHUD BE ABLE 
TO ADEQUATELY WARM ATMOS...AND INCRS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS. THIS WL IN 
TURN LEAD TO LMTD SUNSHN. WL GO AOA MOS TEMPS.

HIPRES SFC AND ALFT TO NUDGE EWD TNGT. HIGH LLVL RH AND LTL WND SHUD 
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION. HWVR...SAME FTR SHUD HOLD OFF ANY PCPN 
IN HIGHLY ACTV FLOW...SO POPS WL BE LWRD BY 10 PCT.

HTS 

XTND...TUE-SUN...

STILL LUKG LIKE A PROLONGUED PD OF CLDNS OVR THE MID ATLC W/ LO LVL 
FLOW TURNING ERLY AS HIGH MVS OVR NEW ENGLAND AND DAMMING SETS UP 
OVR MID ATLC. IN THESE SITUATIONS THERE IS GNRLY A SHARP CUT BTWN 
CLDY AND CLR SKIES..AND SUSPECT THIS WL BE NO DIFFERENT...ALTHO 
EXACT LOCATION OF THAT DIFFERENTIATION IMPOSSIBLE TO PEG 2-3 DAYS 
OUT. MDLS SHOW LOWEST LO LVL RH IN NE MD...BUT AM EXPECTING THAT 
LOWER RH TO SET UP FURTHER N. AS SUCH ENTIRE AREA WL BE M CLDY THRU 
THU. NOT A LOT OF DIURNAL TEMP VARIATION IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

HV KNOCKED POPS FOR TUE BACK TO CHC - THIS PUTS US IN LN W/ 
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND MDL GUID. NOT SEEING A LOT OF DYNAMICS SO 
HV CUT BACK ON QPF AS WELL.

MDLS/MAN PROGS STILL EXPECTING WARM FNT TO PUSH BACK NWD ON 
THU...PLACING CWA IN WRM SECTOR AND ATMSPHR BCMG UNSTABLE. WL 
MAINTAIN CHC OF TRW THU AFTN/EVE. THE CAVEAT BEING I DONT THINK THE 
MDLS HV EVER HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON CAD.

NO LUKG LK MUCH OF A CD PUSH BEHIND THE FNT NEXT FRI. 

HARD TO BLV 4 WKS AGO WE WERE UP TO OUR EYEBALLS IN SNOW.

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

WOODY