430 
FXUS64 KHUN 041848 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1248 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003

1ST PERIOD TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB FASTER THAN EXPECTED...DESPITE 
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL RELEASE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THESE 
CHANGES. BROKE NW GROUP IN HALF...MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60S FOR 
NEW WESTERN GROUP...60 TO 65 NORTH CENTRAL...AND MID 60S NE GROUP.

.HUN...NONE.

RSB


PREVIOUS 1058 AM DISCUSSION...

THOSE CLOUDS HAVE COME BACK AGAIN AFTER A SUNNY START EARLIER. AS OF 
THIS WRITING...A MIX OF CLOUDS WAS NOTED...WITH A MID/HIGH VARIETY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE 
CONTINUED...AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. 

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL DO SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE ON-GOING 
ZONES. WINDS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
A SLOWER TREND CHANGING FROM SE-SW...SO WILL MAKE WINDS SE TODAY AND 
S-SW TONIGHT. CLOUD WISE...CLOUDY WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. WILL 
LEAVE HIGH TEMPS ALONE...AS INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ENOUGH 
HEATING TO WARRANT INCREASING THEM.

RSB

PREVIOUS 320 AM DISCUSSION...

EXCELLENT DAY TODAY...AND TOUGH FORECAST TONIGHT. WILL USE ONE OF MY 
FAVORITE TERMS...ORGANIZED CHAOS...TO DESCRIBE THE WEATHER PATTERN 
FOR THIS PACKAGE. JUST OUT OF THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE...AND WE SEE 
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STILL STREAMING ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE 
FORECAST AREA...AND MORE ON THE WAY. THIS...IN ADVANCE OF A SRN 
STREAM IMPULSE WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE...COULD 
PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH THE NRN STREAM.

TEMPS STARTING OUT THIS AM IN THE MID 30S...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT 
OF SUN IN THE MORNING AND A SOUTH BREEZE...I THINK WE SHOULD GET TO 
60 BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON... 
HIGH CLOUDS FIRST. TONIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLOUDY. ETA AND MM5 
INDICATE A BRIEF LIGHT BURST OF PRECIP...MOSTLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z 
TONIGHT. CHC POPS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHEST CHCS EAST. NOT 
TOTALLY SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WE WILL HAVE TONIGHT...WILL 
USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY IS INTERESTING. MODELS INDICATE A VIRTUALLY DRY DAY. 
BECAUSE OF THIS...I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE 
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...AND ANY BREAKS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ARE GOING TO SHOOT TEMPS UP IN A HURRY. ALTHOUGH IM NOT ABOUT TO 
USE THE 77 MAX GIVEN BY ETA MOS...MAXES AT OR ABOVE 70 ARE NOT OUT 
OF THE QUESTION WITH A PEEK OR TWO OF SUN. WILL HOLD IN SLT CHC POPS 
FOR WED AFTERNOON. 

THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS/NGM STRONGER WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM 
MOVING THROUGH...WHILE ETA IS WEAK. CONSENSUS IS RAPIDLY TRENDING 
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...AND BESIDES ETA HAS HAD A BIAS OF BEING 
TOO TIMID WITH PRECIP AROUND HERE. PLAN TO BRING POPS UP TO LIKELY 
CATEGORY...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES. HPC QPF 
DISCUSSION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WAS A BIG HELP IN ASSESSING THE 
SITUATION. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTMS FOR WED NIGHT. SPC HAS 
AREAS SOUTH OF AL ROUTE 24 IN WEST...AND SOUTH OF TN RIVER IN 
EAST...UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...BUT THINK BIGGER 
THREAT IS TO SOUTH.

PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT BY 12Z THU...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND NOT 
MUCH COOL AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MAXES WILL BE BACK NEAR 60 AGAIN. 
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED IS VERY LOW...WITH PROGGED ZONAL FLOW AND THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A COLD AIR SURGE IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME. NEW 
EXTENDED MOS INDICATES ONE COOLER DAY SUNDAY...BUT COULD IT BE MORE? 
THATS THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL LEAVE MOST OF EXTENDED AS IS...WITH 
ONLY CHANGES TO TREND UP MAXES SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND DOWN SUNDAY.

PRELIM DIGITS...(4A9=FT PAYNE...3A1=CULLMAN)
MSL  62/50/68/45/59/42  032610
HSV  61/51/69/58/60/41  032610
4A9  60/49/68/50/60/40  042610
3A1  62/51/71/50/62/42  022610

.HUN...NONE.

JE/23

$$