624 
FXUS65 KTFX 010948
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
250 AM MST WED JAN 1 2003

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF MY CWA AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER MY EASTERN ZONES HAVE TAPERED OFF. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES...WILL LINGER OVER MY
FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REMAINDER OF MY CWA
WILL EXPERIENCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD MID WINTER
TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE DOWNSLOPE WINDS. A STRONG AND
VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS ON THURSDAY. 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 55 KT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A VORTICITY LOBE ZIPS
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
USUAL AREAS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE. ON FRIDAY...THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE WITH A QUICK
MOVING SHORT WAVE. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN PLACE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE
POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND. MPJ

EXTENDED...WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES. GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DEFINITELY A WINDY AND WARM
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES 4 TO 7
DAYS OUT...SO WILL BROADBRUSH WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND WILL LEAVE PLAINS DRY DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY WITH A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA. TUESDAY SHOULD
BE DRY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MONTANA. VILLANI

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF  BE 042/030 050/033 048 14000
    ENNNB 031/047 034/045 029/047 026/049 026 00000200000
CTB  BE 039/029 047/031 046 14000
    ENENN 029/045 032/043 027/045 024/047 024 00022000000
HLN  BE 041/022 046/026 044 14000
    ENENB 023/044 026/042 025/044 022/046 022 22000200000
BZN  EE 036/016 041/022 042 14000
    ENEEB 022/040 025/038 022/040 019/042 019 22000200000
WEY  EE 026/004 029/008 030 14000
    ECEEB 011/032 014/030 010/032 007/034 007 33222320000
DLN  BE 035/020 040/025 041 14000
    ENEEE 023/039 026/037 023/039 020/041 020 22000200000
HVR  ME 034/022 044/026 046 14000
    ENENB 023/044 029/042 024/044 021/046 021 00022000000
LWT  EE 041/024 045/030 044 14000
    ENNNB 025/045 031/043 026/045 023/047 023 00000200000

TFX...HIGH WIND WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE ROCKY
      MOUNTAIN FRONT AND NORTHERN ADJACENT PLAINS.