820 
FXUS61 KBGM 260836
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 AM EST THU DEC 26 2002

MONSTER STORM NEARLY A MEMORY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PA WITH FEW PATCHES OF SYNOPTIC FLURRIES DRYING UP OVER THE EASTERN
SUSQUEHANNA REGION AND WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE NOT EVEN ANOTHER
FLAKE IS NEEDED OR DESIRED AT THIS POINT. OVER 2 FEET OF SNOW
REPORTED IN THESE AREAS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WITH A
PRELIMINARY 31 INCH REPORT FROM DELHI, NY. REST OF FORECAST AREA SAW
ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS 4-6 INCHES AROUND THE FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERHIPHERY OF OUR AREA TO A GENERAL RANGE OF 10 TO 18
INCHES. RECORD BREAKING DAILY SNOWFALL OF 12.7 INCHES HERE AT BGM
WHERE PAST RECORD WAS 8.8 IN 1978. THE GAME IS OVER...SO ALL
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

MODEL DETAIL DISPARITY WAS THE TOUGHEST ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST
OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS...AND AFTER A DIFFICULT FALL PERFORMANCE
COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL...IT WAS COMFORTING TO SEE OUR HIGH
RESOLUTION STAR PLAYER (ETA MODEL) STEP UP AND KICK THE WINNING
55 YARD FIELD GOAL. MESOSCALE BANDING SIGNATURES NOTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND EPV/QPV FIELDS AND RESULTANT DERIVED QPF
PROGS WERE AMAZINGLY FLAWLESS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THESE SIGNS
SHOWED UP AS EARLY AS THE 00Z TUESDAY RUN. GLAD I FOLLOWED MY
METEOROLOGICAL SIXTH SENSE ON THIS ONE.

ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS OVERALL QUIET...
THERE IS NO REST FOR THE WEARY TODAY. FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW NOW
WAKING UP LAKE ONTARIO FROM ITS BRIEF NAP. MEAN FLOW LOCKS IN ON
300-310 TRAJECTORY TODAY. AIR IS NOT THAT COLD AT -10C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL RISES TO
ABOUT 840 MB AND REMAINS THERE UNTIL FRI MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE
NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
IS PICKED UP BY THE MODELS IN THE VORT PROGS. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC/CAA
FLURRIES THIS MORNING WILL BE ENHANCED AS THIS VORT TAPS INTO THE
LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A DECENT CHANCE AT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME ACCUMS TODAY. THESE MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE DOWNWIND
LAKE REGION. MINOR FLURRIES EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST PA. FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC LAYER IS WELL ALOFT IN THE DRIER AIR...SO ANY ACCUMS WILL
BE NOMINAL WITH CRYSTAL GROWTH LACKING. WILL CARRY AN INCH OR TWO UP
NORTH.

HIGH BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL FINALLY LOWER
INVERSION ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE FLURRIES AND CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING...
THEN FAST WESTERLY FLOW CARRIES A SERIES OF WEAK TROFS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST ARE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND
BECOME MOISTURE STARVED BEFORE GETTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SPEED OF THE
FIRST ONE LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL INCLUDE
A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AS THE HEIGHT FALL CENTER AND MIDLVL INSTABILITY MOVES THROUGH.

CLOUDS...COLD ADVECTION AND FRESH SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH MOS VALUES TODAY SO WILL UNDERCUT BY ABOUT 5
DEGREES. SAME GOES FOR TONIGHT...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
LATE. WILL ALLOW READINGS TO NUDGE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

.BGM...NONE.

BREWSTER