029 FXUS64 KMAF 211548 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 945 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2002 UPDATED ZONES AND FWF TO REFLECT WINDY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MARKED SUBSIDENCE PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND WINDS TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE EXITS EASTWARD AND THICK CIRRUS CANOPY MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. R.FAGEN ------------------------------------------------------------------ MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER US EARLY THIS MORNING IS RAPIDLY FLATTENING AS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN NM MOVES TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM...WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 80+ MPH AT THE BOWL WITH THE GUADALUPE PASS STEADILY CLIMBING IN WIND SPEED. 700MB WINDS OF 55KT AND DECENT MIXING TODAY SUGGEST HIGH WINDS AS WELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDCOVER DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN CA AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST- NORTHEAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. DURING THE DAY MONDAY...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AZ INTO NORTHERN MEXICO FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GREATEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE STRONG ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OVER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR WESTERN AREAS WITH LIS GETTING TO NEGATIVE NUMBERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. MANY FACTORS WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. WE WILL HAVE GOOD SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY SUGGESTING STRONG MOISTURE RETURN RAISING OUR DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALONG WITH THAT WILL BE AMPLE CLOUDCOVER OVER THE AREA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN COOLING WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY CLOUDCOVER...WINDS...AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. 850MB FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE FURTHEST EXTENT TO THE SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE AVN IS JUST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER. ALL THAT SAID... FEEL THAT WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 2 OR 3 INCHES IN ANY OF OUR COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOUNTAINS...AND WILL ISSUE A SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE EVENT. WILL RETAIN CLOUDS THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY OVER MOST OF OUR CWA WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST. MAF UU 62/32 56/35 46 0000 CNM UU 60/28 54/32 47 0000 MRF UU 59/23 56/29 50 0000 FST UU 67/36 61/37 52 0000 .MAF... TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2230Z FOR TXZ258. NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2230Z FOR NMZ027. SN