865 FXUS61 KCAR 201813 AAB AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 110 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2002 .UPDATED... TEMPERATURES CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING OVER WASHINGTON...HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES...WITH AREAS OF FOG FORMING. UPDATE TO DROP ADVISORY ZONES 15 THRU 17...AND ADD ZONE 32 TO THAT SPLIT. ALSO ADDED FOG IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY AND RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO DAY PACKAGE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS THE STATE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS TONIGHT. MODELS SPITTING OUT AROUND .75 OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER AN INCH ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS. NOW THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ICE WILL NORTHERN MAINE GET. 00Z KCAR SOUNDING INDICATES WARM AIR ALREADY ALOFT STARTING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 7000 FT. PRECIP SHOULD START JUST BEFORE NOONTIME WITH RAIN SOUTH OF HOULTON-GREENVILLE LINE AND FREEZING RAIN ABOVE THAT. PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON THE ONSET SO EXPECT JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTED SOUNDING SHOW LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z WHEN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM RAIN DROPS SO ANY AREAS NOT ABOVE FREEZING WILL NOT NOT SEE MUCH ICING THIS EVENING. ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR ALWAYS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT BUT BY EARLY THIS EVENING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE SHOULD ALSO BE RAIN. WITHOUT A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...COLD AIR WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY LATE TODAY. HAVE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM A COATING TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AS YOU GO NORTH TO SOUTH. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BEFORE ENDING WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PRODUCING FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. A QUICK MOVING TROUGH MOVING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY TO EJECT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND AS TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS STATEWIDE WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. UNTIL TONIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER GULF STATES ON XMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC STATES XMAS DAY. BUT NOW ECMWF...GEM...AND GFS MOVING LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW FOR WED BUT IF TREND CONTINUES WITH NEXT RUN...MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT SNOWSTORM FOR XMAS DAY. COASTAL WATERS...NORTHERN PART OF LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL NOSE INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY. 925MB WINDS FORECASTED AT 56 KTS AND OUR LOCAL WIND STUDY INDICATES AROUND 35 KTS TO MIX DOWN SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE FOR LATE TODAY. NOT AS IMPRESS WITH GALES FOR SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST GOING AT THIS TIME. .CAR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN TODAY...ZONES 1>6-10-11-31. GALE WARNING MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. APFFEL