116 
FXUS66 KPQR 091640
AFDPQR

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PST MON DEC 9 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING AND SPLITTING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONGER PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXIT TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SECOND AND THIRD SYSTEMS...AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASINGLY WET AND WINDY SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST SYSTEM ALONG
THE COAST IS STRETCHING AND SHEARING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ECHOES ON THE COAST.
SOME MAY WORK INLAND TODAY BUT HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEM ADEQUATE.

OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS...THE FIRST ONE NOW NEARING
130W. IT COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND
BETTER JET DYNAMICS FOR MORE RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE MID DAY TUESDAY FOR MORE
RAIN...GALES AT THE COAST...AND MORE SNOW IN THE CASCADES. THIS
ONE WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE INSTABILITY ON THE COAST. CURRENT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES IS REASONABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...A
BORDERLINE HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE COAST TUESDAY. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WARM FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. GALES POSSIBLE
AGAIN WITH MARGINAL HIGH WIND AT THE COAST A POSSIBILITY.

SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
STORMY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...JUST SOME TIMING PROBLEMS.
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME SYSTEM
PRODUCING WEDNESDAY/S WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH HIGH WIND AT THE COAST LOOKING LIKELY.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BE THE ONE
WITH THE REMAINS OF T.S. PONGSONA. TOLLESON

AST 79978  PDX 58967  SLE 58966  EUG 58965

.PQR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
      .SNOW ADVISORY...FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
        CASCADES TUESDAY.